Conscription and declaration of war: what Putin may be preparing for May 9 in Russia

According to intelligence, Russia is actively preparing to make an important announcement on May 9 about the war in Ukraine.

Some evidence suggests that Russia may declare a general mobilization to continue fighting against our state. But will it help her on the battlefield?

Perspectives on mobilization

The theory of declaring a general mobilization in Russia is based on their “successes” at the front. After the beginning of the “second phase”, Russian troops have advanced only a few kilometers and have not yet been able to take key positions.

Given the dynamics of the last few days, foreign and Ukrainian intelligence reports state that the Russian occupiers may soon exhaust their offensive potential and have no choice but to stand on the defensive.

In fact, there are no reserves left, so in order to go on the offensive again, they will have to resort to total mobilization of the population.

Olexander Musiyenko, head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies, believes that the prospect of such a decision is quite realistic at the moment. However, there will hardly be any talk of declaring war.

– If he (Putin, – Ed.) declares anything, it will sound something like this: given that NATO, the US and the collective West are not interested in reconciliation, do not hear Russia and continue to help Ukraine, we need additional forces to continue the “fight”, – muses Musiyenko.

Military expert Oleh Zhdanov believes that Russia has no preconditions for declaring a full-scale mobilization.

Despite the fact that many Russians support the policy of Russian President Vladimir Putin, they are unlikely to die for his ambitions. Therefore, covert mobilization will continue in Russia.

– They will carry on the covert mobilization that has been going on in Russia for months now. It will continue in the same spirit,” the expert said.

Not the only mobilization

Of course, mobilization is not the only thing Putin may say on May 9.

Zhdanov does not rule out that Putin may announce the “capture” of Mariupol, even if there is heavy fighting at Azovstal. Perhaps full control of the city is the main goal of the Russian Federation before May 9.

If he does not want to ignore the war in Ukraine, he can make one of several statements.

The first is to proclaim the “annexation” of the occupied territories to Russia.

– It is unlikely, but possible, that Putin will declare the annexation of the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine to Russia as an annexation.

But here the West will react, and the new package of sanctions may be tougher than what (was introduced – Ed.) To date, – explains Zhdanov.

The second is that NATO is the reason for its defeat in Ukraine, because Russia is allegedly at war with it. Experts believe that in such a case, he could declare war on the entire NATO bloc, which would be a new round of escalation and would involve a general mobilization in Russia.

Putin may also go so far as to announce the achievement of “all the goals of the special operation” and end it in one form or another.

Although this scenario seems the most unlikely at present, there are facts that indicate preparation for such a development.

For example, in a conversation with the Pope, the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, stated that Russia allegedly has a “plan to end everything on May 9.”

Also, the self-proclaimed President of Belarus Olexander Lukashenko expressed concern that the “special operation” of Russia has been going on for so long.

They do not rule out that May 9 will be a kind of “warning” to the West. For the first time since 2010, a Russian doomsday IL-80 command aircraft, which is to carry Russia’s top leadership, is expected to take part in the parade if nuclear war is declared.

Of course, the West also has something to respond to Putin. On May 9, U.S. President Joe Biden intends to sign the Lend-Lease Act for Ukraine.

The day before – on May 8 – a video conference between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the leaders of the G7 member states is expected, during which they will discuss further steps in response to Russian aggression against Ukraine.

When they reach the battlefield

If Putin does follow the path of forced mobilization, the recruits will not miraculously appear on the battlefield.

They will need to be at least armed, dressed, given minimal training, and only then sent to the front.

If Russia valued the lives of its military, it would take several months.

– That is if they do not come up with some kind of training “according to an accelerated model”, which will last, for example, 10 days maximum. And after that (the mobilized – Ed.) will be sent to the front line.

Moreover, taking into consideration that Russian military commanders live for nothing and their style and the way of fighting means that they have to throw the numbers over, it may happen that they will really introduce a reduced formula (of training, – Ed.),” muses Musiyenko.

We have already seen how the Russian Federation forcibly mobilizes residents of the “DPR” and “LPR” and throws them to the front as “cannon fodder.”

During the interrogation of the Security Service of Ukraine, one of the “mobilized” admitted that he was thrown into battle without any training.

– In fact, no one actually trained us. During our ‘service,’ I and five others were thrown by the command in one of the villages while retreating,” the captive told the interrogation.

If Russia decides to train conscripts “qualitatively”, they may not arrive in Ukraine in time, because the AFU may reach the borders with the Russian Federation by that time.

Postpone defeat

The Ukrainian Armed Forces, although in heavy fighting, managed to destroy a large part of the elite Russian military. The recruits from Russia, trained in a few days, are unlikely to last long, especially if they are thrown into eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian elite fighters are concentrated.

Most likely, the recruits will reinforce the grouping in the South and East of Ukraine. Musiyenko does not rule out an offensive in the Sumy region, but no more than that.

However, even this will not be enough for Russia to win a lot of time, Zhdanov is convinced.

– It may delay the defeat (of Russia, – Ed.), but not for long. The fact is that they are cannon fodder, and we are getting stronger. Plus, Western armament is coming,” Zhdanov said.

Adviser to the head of the President’s Office Olexiy Arestovich is also confident that mobilization will not help Russia on the battlefield.

– Russians are very much afraid of general mobilization. If it is announced, it will be very good, it is the best way out for Ukraine. Because the probability of revolution in Russia grows many times over, and from the military point of view, they are not a significant force, because they don’t even have weapons for everyone,” said Arestovich.

Threat to Russia

The announcement of mass mobilization in Russia poses a certain danger not only directly on the front in Ukraine, but also to the Russian regime.

Russian opposition politician Dmitry Gudkov believes that the Russians will support Putin as long as the war in Ukraine is for them “on television.”

According to him, as soon as mobilization is announced in Russia, many Russians will stop believing in propaganda and will start looking for information on the Internet, where they will see the real picture of the war.

– What they see there – the corpses of Russian soldiers who burned alive in tanks, the corpses of Russian soldiers who eat dogs, destroyed cities, tragedy. And they understand that they will go there tomorrow.

Then this war moves from television to real life. And the people who sit on couches do not want war. Therefore, this mobilization will have exactly the opposite effect,” explained the oppositionist on the air of the United Telethon.

Putin’s decision to declare a general mobilization will be another mistake because it will also be answered in the international arena.

When the whole world is talking about the need to stop the war in Ukraine as soon as possible, Russia is escalating. The consequence will be more political isolation and tougher sanctions.

In addition, social tension in the Russian Federation will grow, even though the authorities may claim that all of Putin’s actions are supported by the people.

And this is a direct threat to the Russian regime.

– The sanctions that will be introduced in the future will not be lifted just like that. Everything will be charged the appropriate price. Do you want to lift the package of sanctions – reduce the nuclear arsenal, for example …

In the long run, this may lead to the fact that some subjects of the Russian Federation, and there are different indigenous peoples, will want a different future, rather than die for the sake of faltering imperial ambitions. Then tectonic movements of disintegration (of Russia, – Ed.) On smaller formations will begin, – the head of the Center of Military and Legal Studies explains.

Trying to mobilize the Russians for a war that is “going according to plan” is an extremely great risk for Russia’s current “elites.”

Yes, it will create new problems for Ukraine at the front, but it is unlikely to change the course of this war. The course for our victory.