The Kremlin is trying to force Belarus to join the war in order to strengthen its control over the country.
This is reported by analysts of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russian officials constantly state that Belarusian ground forces may cross the border of Ukraine and start fighting on the side of Russia. These statements are sometimes echoed by Belarusian leaders, including President Alexander Lukashenko.
The purpose of these talks is to concentrate the Ukrainian Defense Forces near the border with Belarus so that they cannot reinforce the front line elsewhere in the fighting.
It is unlikely that Belarus will invade Ukraine in the near future, especially given the extremely limited effective combat power of Belarusian troops.
To recap, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko offered his territory to Russian troops to invade Ukraine in February.
Belarus’ support for Russia’s war reduces the material ability of the Belarusian armed forces to conduct their own military operations. The Belarusian Guyun Project reported in November that Belarus had transferred 122 T-72A tanks to Russia, allegedly for modernization.
Belarus is also likely to reduce its artillery ammunition stockpiles, as they are constantly being transferred to the Russian military.
Belarus is unlikely to invade Ukraine because of the dynamics inside the country. ISW analysts have previously noted that Lukashenko does not intend to join the war because of possible renewed internal unrest.