Ukraine may have various options for implementing offensive actions during a counteroffensive, but the Russian-Ukrainian war is unlikely to end this year with a victory for Ukraine or Russia.
The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces, General Mark Milley, said this in an interview with Foreign Affairs.
According to him, it is unlikely that this year the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to gain a sufficient advantage on the battlefield.
– “However, I think that the likelihood of either side achieving its political goals – war is about politics by military means only – I think it will be very difficult, very difficult. And, frankly, I don’t think it will happen this year. But I believe that the Russians have suffered huge losses. They have suffered a lot of losses. Their economy has been damaged significantly. Their ground forces, at least, have been very badly damaged,” he said.
Milley reminded that Ukraine has received significant support from NATO countries to create conditions for a counteroffensive.
– “I would say that the Ukrainians now have the ability to attack, they can conduct offensive operations, and they also have the ability to defend, which is much improved from what it was just a year ago. So, I think their capabilities have increased significantly. So, they can do both offense and defense,” said the commander.
Mark Milley added that he does not want to speculate on whether the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to conduct an offensive operation in the coming weeks, as it depends on the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, not the United States.
– They have to do a significant amount of planning, coordination, and everything else if they are going to conduct an offensive operation. But they are ready for offense or defense,” he said.
He also commented on what the outcome of a Ukrainian counteroffensive might be.
– Let’s imagine that the offensive will take place. And now you’re dealing with probabilities and speculation, which is always dangerous. But I think it’s fair to say that if there is an offensive, there are different outcomes,” he said.
In his opinion, one of the outcomes of a counteroffensive could be “a significant success and destruction of Russian defense along the entire front line.
– And this has already happened in previous wars, for example, in World War I. So this possibility exists,” the military leader said.
“At the same time, there is also the possibility of partial success, limited success, and no success.
– So, all of these are ranges of outcomes if there were an offensive operation. Otherwise, perhaps the Ukrainians will conduct a defensive operation, and the Russians will have great difficulty conducting an offensive operation. So we’ll see what the future holds,” Mr. Milley summarized.
The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff added that the Russian political leadership will have to make a political decision one way or another, because otherwise it will not be able to win the war.
– And I think that the rational people who are part of the Russian decision-making process will come to the conclusion – maybe in a few months or a year or two – they will come to the conclusion that the costs outweigh the benefits, and it will be time to do something, at least in terms of negotiations. Maybe that time will not come now-I am not a mind reader. I don’t know when Putin will be ready to do it, but at some point, if he’s rational, he has to do it,” Milley said.
The general added that the Russian president could end the war right now, although he would face the consequences of the perception within his country.