We are approaching the third winter of full-scale war in Ukraine and the tenth since 2014. So we have considerable experience in winter warfare.
According to the latest data from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the enemy keeps trying to surround Avdiivka, but our Defense Forces are resisting. They are also repelling enemy attacks at the Maryinka, Shakhtarsk and Zaporizhzhya directions. In the Kherson region, Ukrainian soldiers are striking at the Russian rear. Artillery fire is constant along the entire front line.
There are two strategic goals for our Armed Forces at the front: to break through the southern bridgehead (Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions) and to take the city of Bakhmut in Donetsk region into an operational encirclement. But time will tell when this will begin.
Military expert, retired colonel Petro Chernyk, in a commentary to ICTV’s Fakty emphasized that Ukraine is much better prepared for this winter than it was for the last one.
According to the expert, counter-battery fighting will continue in the winter.
If you look at the General Staff’s reports over the past month, the occupiers’ heavy equipment is being eliminated by the dozens every day. For example, last week alone, the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed 133 tanks, 269 armored combat vehicles and 166 artillery systems. Petro Chernyk emphasizes that since May of this year, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been demonstrating unprecedented destruction of enemy artillery, and, according to him, the pace of destruction will continue.
However, the pace of warfare will slow down in winter, due to frost and short daylight hours.
It is clear that the heavy tracked vehicles will not be able to move on the ground, as the tanks weigh 50-65 tons each and will get bogged down in the ground. Although they will be able to drive on roads without any problems, artillery is a threat to convoys of vehicles. Military expert Petro Chernyk notes that the situation is on our side here as well.
– As for the pace in winter, of course, there will be a certain slowdown, because daylight hours are shorter, the military will be cold and tired faster, because people are fighting, not tanks. But we should not expect a complete halt to the fighting. But let’s get ahead of ourselves – we need the frost to go away so we can see the real picture of the fighting,” the military said.
Goals for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in winter
According to him, the main goals for our military this winter will not change – the enemy must be defeated. Therefore, the Defense Forces will continue to recapture territories and fight for logistics and transportation hubs. Although the Russians will try to do the same. For example, the invaders are still shelling the road leading to Avdiivka.
Still, in winter, the occupiers will mostly be focused on survival. For the Russian command, the strategic goal is not to lose.
As for the tactics of the Russian army, according to the military expert, nothing new will happen at the front – the Russians will continue to fire artillery ramparts and will continue to throw infantry to their deaths:
– They have a lot of human resources, biomass, which is ready to die for Putin, for the “Motherland,” for “greatness.”
It is worth emphasizing how the enemy troops prepared for the frost. Back in the spring, the occupiers simply froze their limbs due to poor footwear and the lack of any means of warming. It is possible that this winter will be the same. Although the Russian Federation does not really care about its personnel, it has enough of this resource.
It is also possible that Russians will want to wait out the winter in cities. It is much better than in trenches in the fields or plantations. Perhaps that is why fierce fighting for Avdiivka continues.
Missile terror of energy infrastructure
The President of Ukraine and the top military command have repeatedly emphasized that missile attacks will happen – the enemy is preparing. Petro Chernyk supports this thesis: Russia will definitely fire at our energy facilities.
According to the expert, the occupiers will launch 60 to 100 different types of missiles. These include cruise missiles, aerial ballistic daggers, missiles X-101, X-555, X-31, X-35, etc. In addition, these are Shahed kamikaze drones.
At the moment, the Russians have taken an operational pause in missile attacks and are preparing. But sooner or later, missile attacks will begin, the military says.
So far, the occupiers have not repeated the figure of last December – 236 missiles in a month. It is difficult to predict whether they will be able to repeat it.