The main ones will be artillery duels. How will the tactics of fighting at the front change and should we expect an advance
The Ukrainian General Staff, the military, and Western analysts agree that the rainy weather on the still-frozen front will slow down the fighting somewhat, but not stop it. Nevertheless, both the Armed Forces and the Russian military continue to maneuver in all directions.
Analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) emphasize that due to bad weather – fog and rain – there are difficulties with the use of drones, including reconnaissance drones to adjust artillery fire.
Military expert Petro Chernyk said in a commentary to ICTV’s Fakty that last winter the Ukrainian Armed Forces fought without as many drones as they have now.
Counter-battery combat
The main tactic will be counter-battery warfare, or artillery duels.
– This is classic artillery reconnaissance. A group of specially trained people gets as close as possible to the enemy’s positions, sees them, transmits the coordinates by radio and gives the command: “Fire!” says Petro Chernyk.
“The Defense Forces have a lot of Western equipment for counter-battery combat, including American HIMARS, German Panzerhaubitze 2000 artillery systems, American M777 howitzers, FH70 howitzers, M109 artillery systems, Polish AHS Krab self-propelled howitzers, French Caesar artillery systems, and more.
We also have modern German Leopard 2A tanks and British Challengers, Bradley and Marder infantry fighting vehicles. The United States also gave Ukraine its M1A1 Abrams tanks.
It is worth noting that Western artillery is highly accurate, long-range and compatible with various types of correction means.
By the way, the expert is also of the opinion that due to the wet weather there will be no dramatic changes in the intensity of fighting at the front.
We have already gone through one winter. Then the demarcation line shrank somewhat, especially in the southern bridgehead (Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions), where half of Surovikin’s line (Russian general, former commander of the Russian occupation forces in Ukraine) was passed. Nothing will change this winter – the entire advance will be in artillery mode, the military says.
Will Russians freeze at the front?
Last winter, Russian soldiers were freezing at the front, with many cases of amputation of frostbitten limbs. And all because the occupiers did not have winter shoes, clothes, or heating equipment.
According to Petro Chernyk, not much will change this winter, because the Russians will not be able to provide something better than what they have. Therefore, they will continue to freeze.
Mykhailo Samus, deputy director of the Ukrainian Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, believes that this year the situation with equipment will improve, but not for everyone – it will depend on the type of troops and category of units.
– For example, the equipment of the prisoners from Storm Z is unlikely to be the same as that of the paratroopers. In general, I think there is an improvement, but it is very different in different troops,” the expert emphasized.
“The arrival of steady frost will change the situation: heavy equipment will be able to move faster on the ground, so the fighting will intensify.
This week the temperature will be mostly above zero. Rains and sleet are expected in Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk and southern regions. Night frosts will be mild, but not severe, and during the day it will be up to +10°C in some places. Both Russians and Ukrainians are unlikely to stop their offensive operations.
Situation at the front
Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, spokesman for the Tauride group of Ukrainian troops, said that the occupants have significantly intensified their attacks near Avdiivka in Donetsk region. The number of attacks in the area increased by 25-30% over the past day.
The occupants tried to attack with a dozen armored vehicles in the Avdiivka sector, but our Defense Forces repelled the attacks, destroying two tanks and seven armored combat vehicles.
Russian troops are trying to regain positions west of Staromayorske in Donetsk region, but are unsuccessful. The occupants also continue to try to advance in the area of Urozhayne village.
Ukrainian defense forces hold positions on the eastern bank of the Kherson region: they have established themselves in Krynky (30 km northeast of Kherson and 2 km from the Dnipro River). Ukrainian forces are also holding positions and attacking near Poima (12 km east of Kherson), Pishchanivka (13 km east of Kherson), and Pidstepne (17 km east of Kherson). Our units are present near Antonivske road and railroad bridges.
On November 22, the Russians continued their assaults on the left bank of Kherson region, but were unsuccessful.
According to experts, the Russians will mostly fight on the defensive this winter, and any large-scale offensives are unlikely to take place. But the Ukrainian Armed Forces will continue their advance on the Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Donetsk directions.
In October, Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were provided with everything necessary for counteroffensives in the winter.
