Ukraine could deploy one of its best brigades to defend Avdiivka – Forbes
Ukraine is strengthening its positions in Avdiivka, the epicenter of Russia’s winter offensive, and there is every reason to believe that the strengthening is being carried out by one of the best assault brigades of the Ukrainian army.
This was written by Forbes journalist David Axe.
Additional forces for the defense of Avdiivka
The author points out that the commander of the Tavria group, Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, announced the reinforcement of the brigade on Saturday in Telegram.
– “We are strengthening the blockade line, setting up additional firing positions, using fresh effective forces. Logistics supplies continue,” Tarnavsky wrote on Saturday.
According to the Forbes journalist, the fact that the Ukrainians will reinforce Avdiivka has not been decided. The publication calls it a “huge risk” that Ukrainian forces have decided to stay and fight in the region.
– After four months of fierce fighting, Russian troops from the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies broke through Avdiivka, a key Ukrainian stronghold a few kilometers northwest of Russian-occupied Donetsk, earlier this month and came within a few hundred meters of the main road that the Ukrainian garrison, concentrated in the 110th Mechanized Brigade, uses to deliver supplies to the city, the newspaper writes.
According to the newspaper, General Tarnavskyi had two options:
- Withdraw the surviving units of the 110th Brigade from the unprotected eastern part of the city and strengthen the Ukrainian line in the center of Avdiivka or outside the city, in the west.
- Or reinforce the 110th Brigade and try to push the much larger Russian forces away from the garrison’s supply lines.
The Forbes journalist suggests that perhaps the decision was not made by Tarnavsky. He recalls that last week, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Chief of Staff Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, replacing him with former Army Commander General Oleksandr Syrskyi.
– In any case, it appears that fresh Ukrainian forces have arrived in the lifeless ruins of a once thriving industrial city with a pre-war population of 30,000. Their first and most obvious task is to relieve pressure on the main east-west paved road into the center of Avdiivka, Hrushevskoho Street,” writes David Axe.
He notes that there are other, less passable roads to Avdiivka, but Hrushevskoho is critical.
– “The intention of the Russian aggressors is clear: they primarily want to establish control over the logistics routes to supply our units on the northern flank. However, we are giving an adequate response to the enemy’s actions,” Tarnavsky wrote.
As such an “adequate response,” Eicks believes that the deployment of elements of an additional assault brigade or unit can be used.
Delayed aid to Ukraine
The publication points out that at the beginning of the defense of Avdiivka, everything was done correctly. However, the defense was hampered by the fact that Republicans in the US Congress refused to support Ukraine.
– When those lawmakers refused to approve further aid to Ukraine starting in October – coincidentally around the same time as the Russians attacked Avdiivka – the howitzers of the 110th Brigade, which had hoped to turn Avdiivka’s flanks into an artillery strike zone, fell silent,” Axe writes.
The journalist also points out that America was the main supplier of ammunition for Ukraine, so Ukrainian artillery quickly went from matching the firepower of Russian artillery to firing only a fifth of the shells compared to the Russians. This is why the Russians felt the opportunity to intensify their attack, including by using air power.
– For four months, the Avdiivka garrison may have been killing 10 Russians for every Ukrainian soldier lost. But the encirclement by Russian field armies threatens to negate this manpower advantage,” writes Axe.
Forbes writes that one can only guess what will happen next in Avdiivka. But, the publication notes, “if an assault brigade is indeed deployed to the city, expect a counterattack on Russian positions in the area of Hrushevskyi Street.”
The author of the article emphasizes that one should not hope that the Ukrainians will have a lot of spare ammunition, as the aid from the EU will take a long time, and the aid from the US is still pending approval.
