How strikes on Russian airfields will affect the frontline and whether to expect retaliation – analysis by an aviation expert
Russian airfields came under attack – explosions were heard last night in Morozovsk, Engels and Yeysk. Read how the strike on Russian aircraft will affect the events at the front and whether we can expect an act of revenge from Russia in the coming days in an exclusive Fakty ICTV article.
Strikes on Russian airfields
On the night of 5 April, explosions occurred near several Russian airfields, including Morozovsk, Engels and Yeysk. Later it became known that the attack on the Morozovsk airbase had destroyed six Russian aircraft and severely damaged eight.
For example, there were Su-27 and Su-34 bombers in Morozovsk, from which the Russian army drops munitions on the positions of our military and frontline Ukrainian cities.
According to OSINT researcher MT Anderson, up to 30 Russian military aircraft could have been at the Morozovsk airfield, including 26 Su-34 fighter-bombers.
Engels, which was also noisy at night, is a military airfield from which strategic aircraft take off to attack Ukrainian cities.
Media outlets, citing their own sources, say that the GUR and the Armed Forces of Ukraine organised an attack on the Russian airfields of Engels-2, Yeysk and Kursk. At least three Tu-95MS strategic bombers were damaged at Engels-2 airfield. Seven occupants, including bomber pilots, may have been killed there.
In the city of Yeysk, drone strikes killed at least four occupiers and completely burnt down two enemy Su-25s.
There is also information about the destruction of another airfield in Kursk. Details of this attack are not yet available.
How the attack on Russian airfields will affect the frontline
ICTV Fakty asked Valeriy Romanenko, an aviation expert and leading researcher at the Antonov State Aviation Museum, how the strikes on Russian airfields will affect the frontline.
According to the expert, a night attack will complicate the logistics of the occupiers – they will need to deliver fuel and ammunition to several airfields.
– “These strikes on Russian airfields will definitely have an impact on the frontline – the Russians will be forced to disperse their units across operational airfields, but they will not move them deeper, as it is vital for them to continue to terrorise our defence with these Guided aviva missiles,” he says.
And this will undoubtedly weaken the enemy’s positions at the front.
– “Having moved their units to operational airfields, the Russians will have to transport bombs and fuel to several airfields (they used to concentrate them on one), and this will slightly reduce the intensity and regularity of their attacks on the positions of the Ukrainian military and our frontline cities,” Romanenko adds.
“But we shouldn’t expect the enemy to move the planes that drop the Guided aviva missile to the Far East.
– They did not move them here to take them away from the front line in case of attacks. Near Avdiivka, the occupiers carried out up to 150 attacks a day, and along the entire frontline, there were up to 250 attacks with these bombs. They dropped both FAB-500 and FAB-1500, and have already prepared to use FAB-3000 bombs, which contain more than 1300 kg of explosives. Even under the impact of FAB-500, no field fortifications can withstand, and concrete fortifications cannot withstand the impact of FAB-1500 in case of an indirect hit,” Romanenko explains.
According to the expert, the current task for Ukraine is to reduce the number of Russian strikes with the FABs and to get a good feel for enemy airfields.
For reference. The FAB-3000 is a 3,000-kilogram general-purpose bomb with an explosive warhead developed in the USSR and mainly used by the Russian Air Force. It is a heavy bomb capable of penetrating concrete structures, shelters, fortifications, dams and industrial buildings thanks to its 1,600kg cast body and 1,400kg explosive charge.
In addition, Romanenko expects the Russians to strengthen the air defences of their own airfields and disperse their aircraft a little, which will make it more difficult to maintain.
Should we expect increased missile attacks from Russia
The Su-27 and Su-34 that were stationed at the Morozovsk airfield are carriers of short-range cruise missiles X-59 and X-69 (range 300-350 km). The enemy uses them, as a rule, to strike at frontline cities and near rear areas.
And an attack on an aircraft base could prompt the Russian Federation to withdraw the “birds” into the depths, to operational airfields. This, in turn, would make it impossible to repair aircraft quickly, which would reduce the number of aircraft in combat readiness.
– If a damaged aircraft is at an operational airfield (which is where the enemy will be sending the “birds” through nighttime attacks on airfields), it is first disassembled and only then transported to the main airfield or an aircraft repair facility. At the base airfield, there is a maintenance department – they are brought there, repaired, and in a day or two or three they are back in service,” says Romanenko.
He notes that aircraft, even without damage, are still prone to malfunctions, and operational airfields, unlike basic airfields, do not have test equipment or repair facilities.
– Should we expect retaliation for the attack on Russian airfields? I think that one way or another they will continue their terror, it’s just a matter of days until the next strike, whether the enemy will launch a missile attack tomorrow or the day after, or postpone it for a week. In general, I do not think that any of their actions will go beyond their usual antics,” the expert emphasises.
Romanenko notes that, in general, this war is Russia’s revenge for the freedom-loving Ukrainians, for our unwillingness to live in the same state with the occupiers.
