Weapons and labour migrants: experts tell why Putin went to the North Korea

On 18 June, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin arrived in North Korea for a two-day visit, where he met with the country’s leader Kim Jong-un. This is Putin’s second visit to the DPRK in the 24 years of his rule – in 2000, he met with Kim Jong-il.

From the very beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, North Korea has been politically supporting this war. For the past 9 months, the DPRK has been supplying Russia with missiles and artillery ammunition because Putin’s forces are being depleted, and he did not expect a protracted war.

Fakty ICTV asked experts what the purpose of Putin’s visit to Pyongyang was and what North Korea wanted in return.

The purpose of Putin’s trip to Pyongyang

Ihor Reiterovych, political scientist, PhD in Political Science, associate professor at the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, believes that Putin’s visit to the DPRK has two goals, in particular: to supply ammunition to continue the war in Ukraine and to show the world that the Russian president is not an exile who sits in a bunker, never goes anywhere, and never meets anyone.

And it doesn’t matter who Putin meets with, the fact that he goes is what matters.

– This should be a signal to the domestic electorate and to the West that, despite the sanctions and the International Criminal Court’s warrant, Putin can travel and meet with leaders. This is a purely ideological point,” the political scientist believes.

“In addition, the Russian president wants to show with this visit that the Western world can be confronted by some other countries that choose a different path of development, and they are grouped around the Russian Federation. It should be understood that without allies, the Russian economy will not be able to “pull through” the war.

Oleksandr Musienko, head of the Centre for Military and Legal Studies, emphasises that these two authoritarian dictatorial regimes – Russia and the DPRK – are trying to unite and act at the highest level, as North Korea is one of the few countries that openly supported Russia’s war.

Putin’s visit to the North Korea acknowledges that the so-called great and powerful Russia cannot cope with Ukraine without external assistance, the expert said.

What Putin wants from the North Korea

According to various sources, North Korea has already transferred and is transferring to Russia about 4.8 million 152-mm and 122-mm shells for cannon and rocket artillery and mortar shells. There are questions about the quality and range of these shells, but all of this is covered by the large volumes. Putin also wants ballistic missiles from the North Korea, although they are also inaccurate and of poor quality. But even if 50% of these missiles reach their targets, they still pose significant risks to Ukraine.

It is possible that Putin and Kim Jong-un will discuss the possibility of sending the North Korean military to help Russia.

– Putin is now seeking escalation. After he announced his unacceptable ultimatum to Ukraine, he will look for ways to escalate to demonstrate that he is capable of achieving this,” says Musienko.

“If we look at Russian history, we can see that Russia has rarely won wars on its own. That is why the Kremlin wants to create a coalition with North Korea and Iran. It would also like to do so with China, but it is not so easy with China.

Russia is also trying to influence the countries of the Global South through an alliance of authoritarian regimes.

What Ukraine needs to counteract

Expert Oleksandr Musienko believes that the West should strengthen its support for Ukraine by providing us with more weapons to destroy Russian artillery. If Russia has shells, but not artillery systems, the Russians will not be able to do anything.

We need sanctions from the European Union and other countries so that Russia cannot transfer anything to the North Korea and the profitability of their cooperation decreases. In addition, Ukraine needs to work with China, which can influence Pyongyang’s decisions.

Also, our partners should express their position: if North Korea sends its troops to war in Ukraine, the West will support French President Emmanuel Macron’s idea of sending allied troops to Ukraine.

Korean labour force for the Russian Federation

According to Igor Reiterovich and Alexander Musienko, Russia has a huge labour shortage due to its losses in the war.

– No matter how much they talk about 140 million, the problem of personnel who are ready to work is objectively real. And North Korea can help here,” says Igor Reiterovich.

“It is quite possible that tens of thousands of workers will be brought to Russia for many years, ready to work. And the salary that North Koreans will receive, even if a significant part of it is taken away, is still a huge amount of money.

What the North Korea wants from the Russian Federation

According to Alexander Musienko, Russia will transfer military technology to North Korea to launch satellites into space. Russia will provide aircraft, help the DPRK develop its naval forces. An equally important aspect is the transfer of food, which is very difficult for Korea.

North Korea, with the help of Russia, plans to launch satellites into orbit in the future, and not to broadcast football matches. And it is unlikely that this is a question of placing nuclear weapons in space, because North Korea is still very far from that.

The DPRK needs the ability to monitor, for example, US military bases. And this is an additional problem for the United States that it will not ignore. And if North Korea gets a satellite, it will be a big problem for everyone in the region.

According to Ihor Reuterovych, the North Korea is very interested in technologies for the submarine fleet.

– Since North Korea allegedly has nuclear weapons, it wants to install them on submarine launchers. And this is a very big threat to the region. And in general, the transfer of these technologies, the creation of nuclear submarines is a very serious threat,” the political scientist emphasises.

Tightening sanctions against the North Korea is a signal for the region

According to Oleksandr Musienko, due to the strengthening of ties between China, Russia and the North Korea, the United States can indeed increase its presence in the Pacific region.

For example, China, thanks to the decision of the North Korea and Russia, has gained the right to pass through the Tumen River to the Sea of Japan. This allows Chinese boats to go out to sea and pose certain threats to the US allies, Japan and South Korea.

Political analyst Ihor Reiterovych believes that North Korea is already used to living under sanctions and is not too afraid of them. But the introduction of new ones will, first of all, send a signal to those countries with which North Korea has some kind of relationship. For example, with China, no matter how much the Chinese say they don’t care about the Americans and will do as they see fit.

For example, after the meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, any activity involving the export of arms containers from North Korea to Russia was suspended for at least a few weeks, and possibly longer.

And this clearly happened under pressure from China. That is, sanctions are working – indirectly, but they are working, says Igor Reiterovich.

How Putin’s visit to North Korea will affect the frontline

Military expert Oleksandr Musienko believes that despite North Korea’s support for the Russian regime, despite the massive supply of North Korean artillery, the situation at the front will not change dramatically.

Why joint tourism is important for Russia and the North Korea

According to experts, North Korea is interested in Russian tourism because it is an inflow of money into the budget, not rubles but dollars. Plus, Pyongyang can say that the DPRK is not as closed a country as the West says.

According to Russian authorities, more than 400 Russian tourists visited North Korea from February to May 2024. In addition, for the first time in almost four years, passenger rail links between the two countries have been restored.

On 19 June, Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un sign a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement that provides for mutual military assistance in the event of aggression against Pyongyang or Moscow. Kim Jong-un assures that the agreement is peaceful and defensive in nature. The detailed content of the document is still unknown.