The operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region forces the Russian Federation to review the strategy of the war in Ukraine – ISW
The operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region and further potential incursions by the Ukrainian army will force the Kremlin to redistribute its resources to protect the state border, sacrificing the effectiveness of military operations in Ukraine.
This was reported by analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The operation of the Armed Forces in the Kursk region forces the Russian Federation to change its plans in the war
It is noted that before the start of the operation of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region, the Kremlin perceived its state border as a dormant front, which gave Russia the opportunity to be more flexible in accumulating and using resources in Ukraine.
However, now Russia will be forced to reconsider its attitude, spending manpower and equipment to protect the border. This may impose long-term constraints on operational planning that Russia has not previously faced.
Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War point out that Putin did not assess Ukraine’s previous cross-border operations on the territory of Russia as posing medium and long-term threats to the aggressor country.
What threats does the operation of the Armed Forces in the Kursk region pose for the Russian Federation?
According to ISW experts, the current operation of the Ukrainian army poses significant threats to Russian military operations in Ukraine and the stability of the Putin regime and requires a response.
The breakthrough in the Kursk region is likely to broaden the Kremlin’s thinking about what types of operations are possible along the border. Russia’s long-term treatment of the international border as an inactive front line is a strategic failure.
As it turned out, poorly equipped and staffed border fortifications are not enough to prevent the actions of the Ukrainian army at the beginning of the operation in the Kursk region. That is why the Russian military command will probably come to the conclusion about the need to spend more resources.
Consequently, this conclusion narrows the flexibility that Russia has enjoyed in committing manpower and materiel to its current offensive efforts in Ukraine.
From now on, the Russian military command will have to consider the requirements for border defense when determining what resources can be allocated for a future large-scale offensive and defense effort in Ukraine.
Breakthrough of the border in the Kursk region
We will remind that on August 6, there was a border breach in the Kursk region.
The Russian Federation claims that “Ukrainian forces” launched an offensive and captured 45 square kilometers of the territory of the Kursk region.
At the same time, The Telegraph reports that a sudden attack in the Kursk region has humiliated the Russian army.
Journalists claim that the Ukrainian military allegedly captured more territory in two days than during the counteroffensive in 2023.
Photo: Kursk region Administration
