The expert explained what the start of negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU means
On December 14, the European Council decided to start negotiations with Ukraine on joining the European Union.
Fakty ICTV interviewed Oleksiy Yakubin, political scientist, PhD in Political Science, senior lecturer at the Department of Sociology at the National Technical University of Ukraine, Kyiv Polytechnic Institute.
As a reminder, in November 2023, the European Commission assessed Ukraine’s reforms as 90% complete and recommended that the European Council vote to start negotiations.
Start of EU accession negotiations
Despite considerable skepticism from European officials about a positive decision for Ukraine, official Kyiv was still 90% sure that the European Council would support us.
Over the past month and a half, the Verkhovna Rada has done a lot – it has adopted the necessary decisions without much discussion. In other words, Ukraine has done everything in its power to get the EU accession negotiations underway.
The main thing is that these negotiations are also important for the EU. The EU had to demonstrate that it can make decisions despite the position of an individual country. It is especially important that this decision is related to EU enlargement.
– Often Ukrainians perceive joining the EU as an important step for us first and foremost. But it is also important for the EU itself, as it demonstrates that this structure is attractive to other countries. The European Union, despite the statements of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, was well aware of the symbolism of the decision on Ukraine,” emphasized Oleksiy Yakubin.
“It is worth noting that the Balkans were on the top of the EU’s previous enlargement plans. However, it so happened that negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina will not start because it did not fulfill the criteria and did not demonstrate its active work, as did the Ukrainian parliament and government.
What could have convinced Orban not to veto
On December 14, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban assured that he would veto the decision to start negotiations. But in the end, he simply left the room, and a legitimate vote was held in his absence.
According to Oleksiy Yakubin, we need to understand the political figure of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
The main opinion about him is that he is pro-Kremlin and a friend of Putin. But beyond this, Hungary has a certain trauma from the Trianon Treaty after World War I (the country agreed to significant restrictions and the loss of territories, including Transcarpathia and all of Slovakia). And since then, there has been a sense of resentment inside that has been transferred to neighboring countries.
By the way, this applies not only to Ukraine. There have been similar outbreaks of hostility towards Slovakia and Romania, where there are large Hungarian communities.
According to the political scientist, inside Hungary, Orban turned anti-Ukrainian statements into political points for himself. And in foreign policy, this has become the Hungarian strategic culture, which is how the country behaves in the international arena.
At first, we see Orban’s categorical position against the start of EU negotiations with Ukraine, and then he suddenly leaves the meeting, and the European Council makes a positive decision for us.
– Similarly, various packages of sanctions were adopted, and Hungary was always against them. But it gets some carrots and eventually supports them. That is, Budapest is characterized by a culture of bargaining with Brussels,” the political scientist says, emphasizing that the country will still receive €10 billion out of the €30 billion that the EU has blocked.
Orban’s demonstrative withdrawal from the European Council meeting will allow him to say domestically that he has not abandoned his position on Ukraine and to continue his line of flirting with the Kremlin in order to receive some dividends from Russia.
Homework for Ukraine before joining the EU
There are the 1993 Copenhagen Accession Criteria for the European Union. These criteria must be met by any country that wants to be a member of the EU.
The first criterion is a representative democracy that works. This is a democracy that holds elections, has a high level of political pluralism, freedom of the media, broad civil rights, etc.
The second criterion is a market economy. Market institutions must work. And here it should be understood that it is the EU that will assess the economy.
Political expert Oleksiy Yakubin notes that Ukraine is facing a very difficult period: negotiations with each European member state of the European Union to convince them that we should be in the EU. After all, the parliaments of all 27 member states have to vote for our accession to the union.
But we should understand that there may be pitfalls in the process of negotiations with countries. Not only Hungary may have claims against Ukraine.
For example, when Poland joined the EU, it already had hundreds of trained people who were engaged in negotiations and tried to bargain for the best conditions for their country. And now the same responsibility awaits Ukrainian officials, says Oleksiy Yakubin.
When to expect Ukraine’s accession
According to the political scientist, it is still difficult to predict when Ukraine will join the European family. It could be three, seven or more years. The war factor will also play an important role. However, it would be realistic for Ukraine to join in seven years, around 2030.
The political situation in the EU is also important. In 2024, elections will be held in many countries around the world, and the European Parliament is also expected to hold elections. The mood in European countries will determine which parties will be elected to the European Parliament, and this will affect the work of institutions and the European integration process.
Will the war hinder Ukraine’s accession to the EU
The political scientist believes that Ukraine will be able to fully acquire the status of an EU member only after the war. Not directly, but the war will still have an impact.
Regarding the occupied territories, there is the example of Cyprus, which joined the EU even with the occupied territory, the unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. It should be understood that EU policy is not as categorical as NATO’s.
And in the context of joining the European Union, the path itself is important – that is, the processes and reforms that Ukraine will implement to become a full-fledged EU member.
