To the surprise of many Ukrainians, President Volodymyr Zelenskyi has officially announced a list of weapons that our country seeks to obtain from international partners.
Now we can speak openly about what heavy weapons the Armed Forces want. ICTV found out for what purposes weapons are needed and whether full deoccupation of Ukraine is possible.
What Ukraine is asking for
There are seven main types of weapons in Ukraine’s positions voiced by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy:
- 155-millimeter artillery installations and ammunition for them;
- Armored personnel carrier;
- T-72 tanks or their analogues;
- multiple rocket launchers (Hail, Hurricane or M142 HIMARS);
- 152-millimeter artillery shells;
- combat aircraft;
- C-300, Buk or other modern Western air defense systems.
Although Zelenskyy did not declare specific systems in all areas, military expert Oleh Zhdanov believes that this is a complete list of Ukraine’s heavy weapons.
– This is actually the whole list of weapons we need. But the president did not specify, he said in total …
This is the case with both the critical and the general list. The main claim of the president to the West, is being very slow to provide weapons, make decisions, – he explains.
The head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies Oleksandr Musiyenko, instead believes that the President of Ukraine has not announced a complete list of necessary weapons.
In direct contacts with the leaders of other states, these areas, of course, are discussed in more detail – specific names, justification of the need, number.
At present, Western partners are being informed about the need to supply weapons in all possible directions, even if some of them are public.
– The President named the types of weapons that we need the most. These are air defense, artillery, in particular jet, aviation, drones, heavy equipment … Taking into account the fact that the conditions of hostilities are also changing.
We know that the land battlefield has moved to the east and south of Ukraine. Accordingly, in order to counteract the enemy there as effectively as possible and be able to launch successful counterattacks, we need these types of weapons, – Musiyenko thinks.
Not just an offensive
In fact, all that Ukraine is asking for is an offensive weapon that we need to win a military victory or “push” Russia to progress in the negotiations.
Even before announcing the full list of weapons needed, the president said a quick supply of offensive weapons would help unblock Mariupol.
– Unfortunately, we do not get as much as we need to end this war sooner. To completely destroy the enemy on our land.
And to fulfill those tasks that are obvious to each of our people. In particular, to unblock Mariupol. If we got planes and enough heavy armored vehicles, the necessary artillery, we could do it, – Zelenskyy said on April 11.
The Armed Forces still have to restrain the offensive in Donbas, which, according to various estimates, began about 1.5 weeks ago.
On April 18, street fights continued in Kreminna. At the same time, Ukrainian fighters managed to recapture several settlements in the direction of Izyum.
– The primary goal is to stop any offensive actions of the enemy. This gives you the opportunity … to go on a counterattack, and then – to look at the situation.
Now it is necessary to defeat the group of troops that is forming in the east and south of Ukraine. And then – gradually move in those directions where possible, – says Musiyenko about the situation.
Heavy weapons can be used not only for the offensive. In modern warfare, most weapons can be used for defense.
Of course, NLAW and Javelin will not help much in the offensive, but the same tanks will be needed both to strengthen defensive positions and to cover the military during the attack.
– We will use weapons to achieve the goals of the war – the liberation of our territory. But this requires both hostilities in defense and offensive.
For example, artillery is used both in the offensive and in defense. This is the main method of fire defeat of the enemy, – explains Zhdanov.
A matter of time
Experts say that Ukraine needs the entire published list of equipment if we want to advance well and suffer as few losses as possible.
– We have every chance to win. It’s about time and losses. The presence of heavy weapons increases the speed of our victory and reduces the number of losses on our part.
In war, time plays a very important role: whether the enemy will be able to create and replenish their reserves or not. A lot depends on this, – says Zhdanov.
At the same time, experts do not doubt Ukraine’s military victory, even if the speed of supply of heavy equipment will not increase enough.
Yet again, the more weapons we get, the sooner the war will end and fewer Ukrainians will die in it.
Next are the demarcation lines
One of the most important questions is: How far will the Armed Forces be able to go with the weapons we ask our partners for?
The minimum task is to deoccupy all the territories that Russia has entered since February 24. That is, return to the so-called line of demarcation in ORDLO.
If the Armed Forces wins the battle for Donbas, it will not make sense to stop at the line of demarcation that existed until February 24. Such steps on our part may lead us to postpone the war for a short time.
– As far as we can liberate (Luhansk and Donetsk regions – Ed.) – everything will depend on the development of the fighting situation. In my opinion, if we can inflict a serious defeat (on the enemy – Ed.), Then we will be able to move in certain directions, – said Musiyenko.
The situation with Crimea is more complicated. The decision here will have to be made by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, based on how Russian troops will behave.
– If Crimea is empty, there will be no groups of the Russian armies which were at the time of the beginning of war, why not to come and take it “bare hands”?
And if the remnants of Russian troops retreat there and this entails heavy losses on our part, we may have to stop and resolve the Crimean issue in another way, – Zhdanov thinks.
In any case, everything will depend on how the second attempt of the Russian offensive, which is located in the east and south of Ukraine, ends.
This is the last attempt of Russia, after which it will not have the strength to attack.
– If in the confrontation in Donbass we inflict fire damage on enemy troops, then further, as one speaker said: the Russian army is coming to an end.
It will take them three to six months to assemble another group. Previously, they will not be able to exhibit anything. And we will be able to counter-offensive actions to reach our borders, – sums up the military expert.
The latest weapons
To carry out an offensive operation effectively, our soldiers will need more than just Soviet-style equipment.
Of course, Ukraine will not refuse it, but if we manage to agree on the supply of the latest weapons, it will only improve our position in the war against Russia.
For example, long-range artillery will help our troops conduct operations with fewer casualties. The maximum range of the Hail attack is 42 km, while the American M142 HIMARS can launch missiles that hit 300 km.
Of course, we may not receive such missiles, but even missiles with a range of 60-70 km will be a significant advantage for the Armed Forces.
At the same time, the question arises as to whether the West will be able to give Ukraine enough weapons. In one of his speeches, Zelenskyy said that 1% of NATO aircraft and tanks would be enough for us.
But Europe should also pay attention to the military risks associated with Russia and increase its armaments.
– This is a matter of political will. In my opinion, we should tell our partners that we need not only Soviet-style weapons, but also modern ones, including those of NATO member states, – says the head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies.
No one has any doubt that Ukraine has a significant chance of winning. At the same time, the lives of the military and civilians remain a priority for us.
That is why we need as many weapons as possible from our Western partners and as soon as possible. The President of Ukraine has already outlined the priorities, it remains to be seen that common sense will win in Europe, not bureaucracy.