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Battle for Crimea 2024

Crimea is the main military target of 2024

In 2014, Russia occupied Ukrainian Crimea. After that, the peninsula began to rapidly turn into one large military base. Russia was feverishly preparing for war. To do so, it was building military infrastructure, air defense and electronic warfare systems, and strengthening its Black Sea Fleet with the latest frigates and Kalibr missile boats.

Preparing for war and conducting combat operations requires the proper organization of transportation flows. The frontline must receive shells in time, tanks must receive fuel, and military units must receive reinforcements. For this purpose, Russia built the Kerch Bridge.

Sevastopol turned into a huge transportation and repair hub that was supposed to ensure the dominance of Russian ships in the Black Sea. But a full-scale invasion began, and the Russian Black Sea Fleet immediately lost its advantage. The flagship of the fleet, the cruiser Moskva, sank, Zmiinyi Island was lost, and the Russian marine landing force never landed in Odesa. Instead, the Ukrainian Armed Forces began systematically destroying Russian ships and shelling Sevastopol.

Eventually, Russia could not stand it any longer and moved its fleet from Sevastopol to the distant Novorossiysk. Ukraine began to control most of the Black Sea and all sea approaches to Crimea.

The success of Ukraine’s weapons has led analysts to believe that Ukraine will eventually be able to regain Crimea.

During the great war, Ukrainian officials repeatedly predicted when Ukraine would be able to de-occupy the peninsula.

Back in November 2022, Zelenskyy said he would go to Crimea after Ukraine won the war. Later, he even stated that Ukraine was taking steps and making technical preparations for the de-occupation of Crimea.

At the same time, the President’s Office reported that evacuation routes for residents of the occupied peninsula were being developed, and that Crimea itself could not be the subject of negotiations or concessions in a possible dialogue with Russia.

President Zelenskyy directly warned the Russians that in 2024 Crimea and the battle in the Black Sea would become the center of gravity of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Read about the significance of Crimea for Russia and Ukraine, as well as the possible scenarios for its liberation and what is needed for this on Fakty ICTV.

Russians appeared in Crimea in the eighteenth century. In 1783, after winning the Russo-Turkish wars, Empress Catherine the Great abolished the Crimean Khanate and annexed its territory. 

In 1954, the Crimean region was withdrawn from the RSFSR and transferred to Ukraine. The peninsula had suffered greatly as a result of the war, and the decision to transfer it was made to help restore its economy as quickly as possible. Due to its geographical location, Crimea had strong economic and commercial ties with Ukraine. 

But Russian propaganda invented the myth that Nikita Khrushchev, after a drunken night, gave Ukraine Crimea.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has repeatedly confirmed Ukraine’s state borders, including the peninsula. This was enshrined at least in the treaty on the recognition of borders, which was ratified by the parliaments of Ukraine and Russia in 2003.

However, since the beginning of the Russian occupation in 2014, the Kremlin has been emphasizing that Ukraine allegedly acquired Crimea illegally back in Soviet times. Although Ukraine’s borders are recognized by the UN, everything happened within the framework of Soviet legislation.

Crimea is Putin’s biggest foreign policy trophy, so he is unlikely to give it up easily. And this can be seen in the actions of the Russians, who, after realizing that Ukraine cannot be destroyed in one blow, began to actively prepare the peninsula for defense: digging trenches, installing dragon’s teeth, and building firing positions. The Russians realize that Ukraine wants to get its peninsula back.

The battle for Crimea and the Black Sea has already partially begun. In the Black Sea, the Russian Black Sea Fleet has actually lost any advantages in 2023 and continues to lose them today.

For example, retired U.S. Navy Colonel and Senior Advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Mark Kanchian noted Ukraine’s remarkable success in the Black Sea, as even without its own navy, Ukrainians managed to destroy 24 Russian ships of various classes and one submarine over the two years of the war.

Despite the periodic sailings of ships that are still afloat, the Russians can no longer interfere with Ukraine’s grain corridor or prevent the passage of merchant ships.

Losses of Russian ships in the Russian-Ukrainian war

Ukraine’s regular attacks with naval drones and cruise missiles on the Russian Black Sea Fleet forced the occupiers to withdraw a significant part of their fleet to Novorossiysk, which is a much worse place to base the fleet compared to Crimea: neither geography nor weather in the region nor the distance to Ukraine and Crimea in particular help.

In addition, the weakness of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the waters around the peninsula reduces the ability of Russians to defend Crimea from the water, experts say.

Ukraine’s regular attacks with naval drones and cruise missiles on the Russian Black Sea Fleet forced the occupiers to withdraw a significant part of their fleet to Novorossiysk, which is a much worse place to base the fleet compared to Crimea: neither geography nor weather in the region nor the distance to Ukraine and Crimea in particular help.

So today, Russians can only strike Ukraine with sea-based cruise missiles, such as Kalibr. 

Depending on the modification, such missiles can fly up to 2,500 kilometers. This means that Russians can launch such missiles even from Novorossiysk. However, the number of Kalibr missiles in Russia’s arsenal is limited, and the port in Novorossiysk itself lacks proper infrastructure.

Since the Black Sea is closed by Turkey to all warships through the Bosphorus Strait, Russia cannot transfer its ships from other flotillas. However, the Kremlin has the opportunity to ferry some warships by internal troops, said Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military and political observer at the Information Resistance group. According to him, it is the Baltic or Caspian Fleet of the Russian Federation, and for this purpose, for example, the Volga-Don Canal can be used. 

Even if Russia is able to do this, the size of these ships is unlikely to be significant, Kovalenko believes.

Mykhailo Samus, deputy director of the Ukrainian Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, believes that Russia will not be able to transfer even such vessels as the recently destroyed large amphibious assault ship Caesar Kunikov in this way.

– The Russians do not have such ships (similar to the VDK – Ed.) in the Caspian Flotilla. It is very difficult for me to imagine how something like this could be dragged through the canal system from another fleet, the Baltic or Northern Fleet. This is a very dubious operation,” explains Samus.

Throughout 2023 and early 2024, Ukraine clearly demonstrated to the world that it is capable of reaching Crimea with a variety of weapons. 

Regular explosions on the peninsula with the destruction of military facilities indicate preparations for the liberation of Crimea from the occupiers.

According to military expert and historian Mykhailo Zhyrokhov, there are three main scenarios for the de-occupation of Crimea today: optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic.

The optimistic scenario is that the Russian leader (and not necessarily Putin) orders his troops to withdraw from Crimea.

A neutral scenario is to resolve the Crimea issue through diplomacy and international procedures, Zhyrokhov said.

– “Crimea is transferred for 15 years, for example, to the UN, OSCE or some other international organization, after which a referendum is held there in accordance with international laws,” he says.

According to him, world history knows similar precedents, such as the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the 1990s, or the definition of the borders of Israel and Palestine in 1947.

– But, again, if Russia decides to do so. Without Russia’s consent (for example, in the UN Security Council – Ed.), no international stabilization or support forces will be deployed to Crimea to guarantee the safety of Crimean residents during this period,” Zhirokhov adds.

The worst case scenario is an escalation of hostilities on the peninsula. This pessimistic scenario assumes the destruction of military infrastructure in Crimea. 

In this case, the fate of the peninsula will depend on whether Russian troops will defend or retreat from Crimea. If the occupiers conduct a defensive operation, Zhyrokhov says, it will mean significant losses for both sides.

The Kerch Bridge is the main transportation artery connecting Crimea with Russia. 

The other way to Crimea is through the territories of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions temporarily occupied by Russia. For Russia, it is more risky and dangerous because it passes close to the front line.

Most military officials and analysts believe that these two paths must be cut to return Crimea.

The Kerch bridge, which was illegally built after the occupation of the peninsula, was repeatedly attacked by Ukraine, temporarily disabling it and depriving the occupiers of the opportunity to supply additional weapons, equipment and troops to the peninsula and then to mainland Ukraine. 

The future fate of the bridge was predicted by the head of the SBU, Vasyl Malyuk, who called this connection between Russia and Crimea doomed. In turn, the commander of the Ukrainian Navy, Vice Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa, said that the Kerch Bridge would not be worthy of repair by the end of 2024.

Mikhail Zhirokhov, a military expert and historian, explains that the Russian army is highly dependent on railroads. This was one of the reasons why Russia built the Kerch Bridge – it has two railroad tracks.

– If you paid attention, the Russian offensive of 2022 was along the railroad connection, so they could use it to support their own army,” Zhyrokhov says.

In general, the historian and military expert says that Crimea has very limited transport communications with Russia, so it is very easy to capture, but extremely difficult to hold.

That is why the head of the Defense Intelligence Service, Kyrylo Budanov, recently said that it would be harder for Ukrainian troops to regain Donbas than Crimea.  This is because Russia has a continuous supply line with Donbas, while there are no such connections with the peninsula.

– The Crimean bridge is still standing, but it will not live long. Two strategic tasks need to be solved: to cut off the land corridor and to destroy the Crimean bridge. The rest is just a matter of time. The peninsula will be returned. Donbas is more difficult,” Budanov said.

According to Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military and political observer of the Information Resistance group and an expert at the Dmytro Tymchuk Ukrainian Center for Security Studies, the Crimean bridge has not yet fully restored its functionality after a powerful explosion in October 2022. 

Today, only one railroad line is operating, and it is in reverse. That is, a train enters Crimea on one track only, turns around, and returns to mainland Russia on the same track.

As for the condition of the roadway, only one direction is open. The second road has been repaired by the Russians, but it still remains dangerous for loading, and cars are trying to avoid it.

In other words, more than a year after the explosion, the damaged Kerch bridge has not been restored to 100%. And this affects Russian logistics, because the supply of the occupation forces depends most of all on the railroad.

If the Crimean bridge is damaged to the point where it cannot be used at all – neither by rail nor by road – the Russians will have two ways to supply their troops on the occupied peninsula,” emphasizes Oleksandr Kovalenko.

The first way is overland. That is, the transfer of weapons, equipment, and everything else by road through Mariupol to Berdiansk, to Melitopol, and further to Crimea.

The second way is by sea. By the Sea of Azov – through Taganrog to Berdiansk, and from Berdiansk further.

It is possible to deliver weapons by air, but this is a very dubious way of supplying them, says Oleksandr Kovalenko.

As for the sea connection between Crimea and Russia, military expert Ivan Aparshin points out that preparations are already underway to clear the Black Sea of Russian presence. If this bridge is destroyed, the Russians will have to use some other means to transport their resources. And we are gradually destroying their ships. The last ship (VDK Caesar Kunikov – Ed.) was also intended to transport various equipment,” the expert explains.

The military and political observer Oleksandr Kovalenko here gives a short answer – the one we have.

Speaking of cruise missiles, these weapons must have an armor-piercing warhead. That is, missiles that are suitable for destroying fortified bunkers.

Such missiles can hit the railroad part of the bridge, because it is quite narrow and requires precision weapons. Once this type of missile hits, the bridge is destroyed to the point where it will take a very long time to rebuild.

The automotive part will be more difficult because it is wide. Therefore, it is necessary to have a volume pressure effect there, as happened in 2022. Then, during the detonation, the volume pressure was created from the bottom up, which led to significant destruction of the span.

For his part, Ukrainian Armed Forces Reserve Colonel Ivan Aparshin says that Ukraine has other weapons, namely massive FAB/KAB-500 bombs, but the question is how to deliver them to the bridge.

The expert points out that this issue is being partially resolved today. For example, Ukraine will soon receive Western F-16 fighter jets, which, although they will not be able to drop these bombs on the bridge, will be able, for example, to cover Ukrainian bombers that will strike the illegally built crossing.

Aparshin did not name the specific nomenclature of weapons, but noted that Ukraine’s Western partners have the necessary weapons “that can destroy this bridge in one day.”

He added that Crimea does not have to be physically de-occupied. A complete isolation option is possible, which would make it impossible for Russia to logistically connect with Crimea. This, in particular, would reduce tensions in southern Ukraine in general over time.

He recalled that it was Ukraine’s Western partners who have now imposed a ban on the use of modern weapons supplied to the Ukrainian army for attacks on Russian territory. However, it is precisely because of such strikes, which would have been carried out on the territory of the Krasnodar Territory of the Russian Federation, which lies on the opposite side of the Kerch Bridge, that Russia could have already been limited in its military activity, the expert believes.

– If we had the ability to hit 500 and 600 kilometers with missiles (not even at the bridge), we could hit the territory of the Russian Federation, the Krasnodar Territory. Then it (the bridge – Ed.) would become ineffective as an artery. Because the stocks of material and technical resources would simply not reach this bridge,” he explains.

But there is another option. Ukrainian special services have long had detailed technical documentation of the Crimean bridge, so back in July 2023, the bridge was hit by Sea Baby marine drones as part of a joint State Security Service Navy special operation.

The Security Service said that the Kerch Bridge’s vulnerabilities are its piers, where the piles are fixed underwater with a large layer of silt around them.

To do this, experts say, a strike by a marine drone capable of delivering about 800 kg of TNT is required. It was precisely such measures that severely damaged the bridge in July 2023.

The offensive on Crimea, the entry of the Defense Forces into the peninsula, will not be quick, Oleksandr Kovalenko is sure.

To begin with, it will be necessary to create ideal conditions for the isolation of Russian troops, meaning that there will be no supplies through the Kerch Bridge, no supplies through the sea – the Azov and Black Seas must be controlled. There should also be no air traffic.

And in such isolation, the Russian occupiers must be “cooked” for several months.

According to Kovalenko, the isolation should undoubtedly be accompanied by regular attacks on the occupiers’ military facilities in Crimea to reduce their ability to resist and defend themselves.

– Only after several months of such exhaustion can Ukraine launch offensive actions. It will all depend on the conditions that are successfully created,” the military expert notes.

In addition, in order to enter Crimea, the Ukrainian Armed Forces need to come directly to its administrative border.

For a year, the Russians have been actively building a defense line in Crimea: installing “dragon’s teeth” on the coasts, digging trenches and building other fortifications. According to Kovalenko, all this will make no sense for the Russians if they defend themselves in complete isolation after the destruction of the Crimean bridge – without replenishing weapons and supplies.

Military expert Ivan Aparshyn emphasizes that such actions should be carried out in a comprehensive manner. It is impossible to destroy the bridge first, then destroy facilities in Crimea, and only then cut off Russia’s connection with the peninsula through the occupied south of Ukraine.

– This is a complex, it has to happen simultaneously. But I can already see the preparatory moments on the Black Sea today. And you see them,” Aparshin says.

It is also important that representatives of Western countries stand in solidarity with Ukraine in its goal to return the peninsula and restore its territorial integrity within internationally recognized borders. These countries are and will continue to participate in various formats such as the Crimean Platform. 

However, there are still discussions among Ukraine’s partners about when and how this should be done.

For example, U.S. President Joe Biden said that de-occupation of Crimea is important, but not the only condition for ending the war. 

In his turn, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley pointed out that the United States supports Ukrainian strikes on Russian military targets on the peninsula, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called on allied countries to provide Ukraine with the necessary weapons.

The fact that Crimea is the decisive battle for Ukraine was also stated by the former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges. He explained to the Western audience that Ukraine will not accept Russia’s continued control over Crimea. Moreover, Hodges pointed out that Russia’s retention of control over Crimea would certainly lead to future wars between Ukraine and Russia, even if hostilities were temporarily suspended.

At the same time, it is important to provide Ukraine with the necessary weapons for the de-occupation of Crimea, which is obviously not enough today. 

Moreover, according to Ivan Aparshin, a reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a military expert, Ukraine’s partners should allow Kyiv to use Western weapons to strike Russia in order to increase its chances of de-occupying the peninsula.

According to Ihor Reiterovych, PhD in Political Science, Associate Professor at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, most Western politicians sincerely support Ukraine’s desire to return Crimea, although they have little idea of the real mechanisms for doing so.

The political scientist believes that in the future the situation is unlikely to change at the level of official statements by Western leaders, although this is a very important point. That is, the territory of Crimea will be recognized as temporarily occupied, annexed, and not belonging to the Russian Federation.

At the same time, the importance of Crimea in the Russian-Ukrainian war is mentioned in the leading Western media. Thus, in an article by Stephen Hadley and Matthew Kroenig for the WSJ, it is noted that Crimea should become the center of the war, as it could, in particular, force Putin to make concessions to Ukraine and possibly even end the war.

Ukraine is preparing to regain Crimea in the only way the Kremlin understands – by force. 

The response to Russia’s occupation of the peninsula may include strikes on military facilities in Crimea and the bleeding of Russia’s logistical arteries, namely the Kerch Bridge, the Black Sea, and land links through the Ukrainian South.

By using the Ukrainian peninsula as a military foothold, Russia not only threatens Ukraine, but also poses a danger to the entire Black Sea region, including other countries, including NATO members.

In this regard, Ukraine’s partners must understand the need to use force against the Russians now and to prevent Crimea from being used as a military foothold in the future. 

The civilized world must realize that supplying Ukraine with modern weapons systems and ammunition is not charity, as the consequences of Russia’s lawlessness in Crimea will have a global impact far beyond the region and will eventually change the geopolitical balance of power in the world.

Only when the West meets Ukraine’s arms needs, both qualitatively and quantitatively, will Crimea become a place of another defeat for Russia, and thus a further victory for Ukraine and the entire free world.

Text – Ilya Nezhyhai, Marta Bondarenko; Design – Oleksandr Shatov

© 2024 ФАКТИ ICTV

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