The Russian Federation is deploying troops in Belarus: will there be an attack from there?
Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that Russia is deploying troops in Belarus not because it is preparing for hostilities from the territory of the Republic of Belarus.
The experts published their versions on this matter in their latest summary.
Thus, thanks to satellite images, it was possible to establish that the number of Russian main battle tanks at the 230th combined military Obuz-Lisnovsky training ground in Brest has increased significantly.
The independent monitoring organization The Hajun Project reported that the Russian Federation also dropped 15 Tor-M2 anti-aircraft missile systems and 10 units of unspecified engineering equipment to this Belarusian city.
According to ISW analysts, the Russian Federation transferred the equipment to Belarus, presumably for the training of its troops.
The Institute for the Study of War has repeatedly reported that combat losses among Russian instructors and stress related to mobilization have reduced Russia’s training potential.
Because of this, it can be assumed that Russia has become more dependent on Belarus.
Another goal pursued by Russia is an information operation aimed at Ukraine and the West.
– The Kremlin probably seeks to use the deployment of Russian troops in Belarus as an information operation to paralyze Kyiv and drag Ukrainian forces to the capital to prevent their use in the South and East of the country, – experts note.
At the same time, ISW considers it unlikely that Belarusian troops will attack Ukraine.
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