Top Kremlin officials continue to hold high-level meetings with the leadership of Belarus, which could create conditions for a possible new attack on Ukraine, but it is unlikely to happen in the coming weeks, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) predict.
In particular, on January 19, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov met in Minsk with the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, the parties discussed the vague Russian-Belarusian “common vision” regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine.
According to ISW experts, the most dangerous scenario of a new attack in early 2023 seems less likely given the current military activity of the Russian Federation in Belarus.
– The new most dangerous scenario of an attack from Belarus at the end of 2023 seems more likely. There are no signs that Russian forces in Belarus have the command and control structures necessary for an attack on Ukraine in the winter or spring of 2023, about which the Ukrainian side warned in late 2022, – analysts say.
Therefore, they predict that an attack in September is more likely, given that Russia and Belarus plan to conduct large-scale West 2023 and Union Shield 2023 exercises.
As an additional argument, they cite the fact that by the fall of 2023, the Russian Federation may complete one or more additional conscriptions.
Earlier, the representative of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Andrii Chernyak stated that the probability of the invasion of Russian occupation troops from the territory of Belarus in the coming weeks remains low.
