He doesn’t know how to end the war: a political scientist analyzes the main theses of Putin’s address on February 21

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has delivered a message to the Federal Assembly. The speech lasted almost two hours, although it was expected to last an hour.

Fakty ICTV collected the main points from Putin’s speech.

The Russian president began his speech by accusing NATO of starting the war. Allegedly, it was the West that provoked Russia.

Putin repeated one of the main theses of his propaganda to justify the full-scale invasion of Ukraine a year ago: They started the war, and we are using force to stop it.

Putin also mentioned in his speech the “neo-Nazis of Ukraine” who allegedly took the entire Ukrainian people hostage, particularly in Donbas. He also mentioned the fact that “Ukraine has been bombing Donbas for 8 years” and that the West, while Donbas was “burning,” was preparing to attack Russia all along.

The Russian dictator mentioned the expansion of NATO near Russia’s borders, which is also the reason for the attack on Ukraine. He said that NATO has many bases in Europe and, allegedly, in Ukraine as well. Although Putin did not provide any evidence of NATO bases in Ukraine, he just said so: We know about it.

Repeatedly during his speech, Vladimir Putin referred to Ukraine as Russia’s historical lands and one people.

– We are not at war with the people of Ukraine. The people of Ukraine have become hostages of the ‘Kyiv regime’ and their Western masters,” the Russian dictator said.

He touched upon the issue of the West providing Ukraine with long-range weapons. He said that the more long-range weapons systems are provided to Ukraine, the further Russia will be forced to move the threat away from its borders. However, Putin did not specify what exactly he meant.

During his speech, Vladimir Putin talked a lot about how Western sanctions against the Russian economy seem to be not working, that it is the people of Europe who suffer the most, while Russia, on the contrary, is flourishing.

Putin also mentioned the growth of grain exports, but forgot to mention the hundreds of tons of stolen grain in Ukraine.

Putin proposed to extend Russian maternity capital to children born since 2007 in the temporarily occupied regions of Ukraine – Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.

In his speech, Putin talked a lot about the development of Russia: construction, gasification, science – the things he says year after year, and in the 23 years of his rule, it is probably possible to have gasified and repaired the whole of Russia.

But at the end of the address, the Russian dictator said that Russia was suspending its participation in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START). According to him, if the United States starts conducting nuclear weapons tests, Russia will start conducting its own.

Reaction to Vladimir Putin’s speech

Advisor to the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak believes that Putin has publicly shown his irrelevance and confusion, and Russia is in a “taiga dead end”.

Путін публічно продемонстрував свою неактуальність та розгубленість. І наголосив, що Рф перебуває в безумовному «таёжном тупике». І що перспективних рішень у нього немає й не буде. Бо скрізь «нацисти, марсіани і теорії змови»…
Sic transit gloria mundi Путіна в парламенті Рф…

— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) February 21, 2023

In a commentary to ICTV Fakty, political analyst Igor Reiterovich said that Putin and his inner circle have no idea how to end the war, which is why they continue to exploit all those propaganda narratives about punishers, Nazis, one nation, etc.

This is how Putin is trying to keep Russian society in suspense and exploit it in the way he needs to, for example, to mobilize. The Russian president can also use this propaganda to develop some scenarios for further warfare.

– The fact that he (Putin. – Ed.) is obsessed with these issues is typical of authoritarian regimes that simply do not have alternative plans or scenarios when dealing with some problems. Putin has fallen into this classic trap of authoritarian regimes and continues to exploit it to the fullest,” Reiterowich said.

Regarding Putin’s statement about long-range weapons for Ukraine, political scientist Igor Reiterovich believes that these words of the Russian dictator were more aimed at intimidating the West.

– “Probably, the hint was more about nuclear weapons or new missiles that can move the front line away from the Russian Federation, in Putin’s understanding,” the political scientist said.

Although Igor Reiterovich thinks that Putin simply had to react somehow to the supply of long-range weapons to Ukraine. For example, earlier the Russian president assured that HIMARS, Patriot, and Abrams tanks would be used.

In general, no one paid attention to these words of Putin’s because he has said this so many times that it is turning into a meme, says Igor Reiterovich.

As for the Kremlin leader’s words about suspending Russia’s participation in the Nuclear Arms Reduction Treaty, this means nothing for Russia at the moment.

– It sounded like a call to the United States, the United Kingdom, and France to sit down and work out a new treaty. On the one hand, Putin made a threat, because withdrawal from this treaty means a nuclear arms race to some extent.

However, in this context, Vladimir Putin did not mention China, India, and Pakistan, which also possess nuclear weapons.

But the suspension of Russia’s participation in this treaty is more of a disadvantage for Russia than for the United States, for example,” said Ihor Reiterovych.

He explains that the nuclear arsenal needs to be updated every 30-40 years. In addition, the biggest role here is played by the country’s economy – to what extent the country can afford to update this potential.

According to Russian experts, up to 80% of Russia’s total nuclear potential is in a 50/50 state. This means that 50% of the missiles will take off and 50% will not. That is, Russia does not know the real state of its nuclear forces.

When Putin said that he was suspending Russia’s participation in this treaty, he was actually giving countries a free hand to increase their nuclear capabilities. In this race, the country with the best economy and material and technical base will win.

– The last such race ended with the fall of the Soviet Union. Therefore, with his words, Putin probably appealed more to their populations than to the leaders of the countries, which may return to the times of the Cold War,” Reiterovich emphasized.

In his opinion, Putin has created a problem for himself, because if countries start arming themselves, Russia will also have to do so, and it simply does not have the resources to do so.

Photo: screenshot from the speech