ISW explained the reasons for increased nuclear blackmail by the Russian Federation
The Kremlin continues to use nuclear threats to deter Western military aid to Ukraine in the face of an armed counteroffensive.
This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
It is noted that on April 4, the head of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation Serhiy Shoigu justified the decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, accusing NATO of intensifying combat and reconnaissance activities near the borders of the Russian Federation and Belarus.
Shoigu escalated Russia’s current nuclear threats, saying Belarus has nuclear-capable aircraft and Iskander-M systems capable of delivering a nuclear strike. He also added that on April 3, the Belarusian missile forces began training with the Iskander-M complexes, in particular with the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
– Shoigu’s statements do not contain new data regarding Belarusian exercises and are part of an information operation. The revitalization of Shoigu’s nuclear blackmail rhetoric coincides with Finland’s accession to NATO and a new aid package for Ukraine from the United States, – ISW notes.
Analysts add that the risk of nuclear escalation remains extremely low, and Russia’s deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is unlikely to affect hostilities in Ukraine.
In addition, the nuclear weapons deployed by Russia in Belarus will almost certainly remain under the control of Russian personnel permanently stationed there.
Former US President Bill Clinton previously expressed regret for his role in the nuclear disarmament of Ukraine in the 1990s. He suggested that otherwise Russia might not launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
