Beijing will be more cautious: how Prigozhin’s rebellion exposed problems in relations between China and Russia
When news broke on Saturday, June 24, that Wagner’s mercenary troops had rushed toward Moscow as part of the mutiny, several businessmen from southern China began frantically calling factories to stop the supply of goods destined for Russia.
According to Reuters, the military mutiny by PMC leader Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin has managed to influence not only Russia’s internal political processes but also Russia’s relations with China.
Although the rebellion was the biggest test of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s power since his invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it quickly fizzled out, and some of these exporters of Chinese products now question their future dependence on Beijing’s closest ally.
– “We thought there would be a big problem,” said Shen Muhui, chairman of a trade body that brings together firms in China’s southern Fujian province, recalling how frantic members of the organization, which exports auto parts, machinery and clothing to Russia, were.
Although the crisis has eased, “some people are staying away because they are not sure what will happen next,” he added, declining to name companies that have suspended shipments.
China sought to downplay the weekend’s events and expressed support for Moscow, with which it had entered into an “unlimited” partnership shortly before Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
But a senior U.S. official said on June 26 that the weekend’s uprising had worried Beijing’s reclusive leadership, and some analysts inside and outside China began to wonder whether China needed to loosen its political and economic ties with Moscow.
This has become a thorn in the side of this “no holds barred” relationship, says Singaporean security analyst Alexander Neill.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Wagner’s private army, led the armed rebellion after claiming that a large number of his men had been killed by friendly fire from the Russian Defense Ministry.
But the mercenary leader abruptly called off the rebellion on Saturday night as his fighters approached Moscow, meeting little resistance during the nearly 800 km drive.
China has not commented on the crisis, but made a statement on Sunday when Foreign Minister Qin Gang held a surprise meeting with Russia’s deputy foreign minister in Beijing.
At the heart of China’s relationship with Russia is a shared opposition to what they see as a world dominated by the United States and the expansion of the NATO military alliance, which threatens their security.
After winning an unprecedented third presidential term earlier this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping made his first foreign trip to Moscow to meet with his “dear friend” Putin.
While nationalist commentators in China’s state-run tabloids hailed Putin’s swift efforts to quell the uprising, even some in China, where critical speech is tightly controlled, have begun to question Beijing’s bet on Russia.
China “will be more cautious in its words and actions toward Russia,” said Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international relations expert.
According to Reuters, some Chinese scholars have gone even further.
Yang Jun, a professor at the China University of Political Science and Law in Beijing, wrote a commentary published on Saturday calling on China to directly support Ukraine to avoid being “dragged into the quagmire of war by Russia.”
– “With the development of the current situation and the trend of war… (China – Ed.) should further adjust its position on Russia and Ukraine, make its attitude clearer and resolutely take the side of the winners of history,” he wrote in the Chinese-language Singaporean newspaper Lianhe Zaobao.
The newspaper notes that it is unclear whether Yang’s article was written before the Wagner PMC uprising.
However, other Chinese scholars have said that Beijing will not change its position on Russia as a result of this incident.
China is Russia’s main trading partner, with Beijing exporting everything from cars to smartphones and receiving cheap Russian crude oil, which is sanctioned in many other countries.
But even in the energy sector, which has seen trade between Russia and China jump by 40% in the first five months of this year, there are some signs of caution in China.
Top managers of Chinese state-owned energy companies usually say it is too early to comment or dodge questions about new investments in Russia.
– “If Russia loses the war or there is a change in the country’s leadership, it will create enormous uncertainty for Chinese investors,” said Michal Meydan, head of China energy research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
He said the Chinese government also seems to be exercising caution, pointing out that Beijing has not yet signed an agreement to build a major new gas pipeline connecting the two countries, despite Moscow’s insistence.
Although China is vital to the Russian economy, China’s trade with countries such as the United States, the European Union, and Japan-some of the fiercest critics of Moscow’s war in Ukraine-exceeds its trade with Russia.
– Beijing now has more reasons to have more reservations and become more transactional in its relations with Putin’s Russia… There is no point in making a long-term investment in someone who cannot be reliable in the long run,” said Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University.
At the same time, on Tuesday, June 27, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said that Russia and China are “an important force in ensuring global peace and promoting inclusive development.”
Speaking at a conference in Beijing organized by the Russian International Affairs Council and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Qin reaffirmed Beijing’s support for Moscow, saying that he plans to cooperate with Russia to counter “the use of force and hegemony by individual states.”
Qin’s remarks came after senior Chinese officials expressed support for Moscow at a meeting with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko in Beijing on Sunday following the Wagner PMC uprising.
