Cold War: Is such a scenario between Ukraine and Russia possible – an expert’s answer
The Cold War is the period from 1946 to the end of the 1980s, during which there was a global confrontation between the two superpowers – the USSR and the United States. Associate Professor, Candidate of Political Sciences Mykhailo Shabanov told ICTV Facts about the causes of the Cold War in the past, whether it is possible to repeat it in the future, and what are the possible consequences for Ukraine.
What is the Cold War?
Mykhailo Shabanov explained that the Cold War was a kind of response to the realities of the geopolitical polarization of the world after 1945.
– In the twentieth century, the formation of such an international system was based on the ideological confrontation between the superpowers. “The determining lever of influence in the confrontation between the United States and the USSR, the NATO military-political bloc and the Warsaw Pact was primarily nuclear weapons, as well as the struggle to incorporate [include] political regimes around the world into their own system of values, military and political presence, and economic ties,” the political scientist explained.
According to Shabanov, the Cold War – from George Kennan’s Long Telegram and Winston Churchill’s Fulton speech to the Cuban Missile Crisis – demonstrated the fragility of any deterrent mechanisms during a global conflict.
It should be noted that the Long Telegram and the Fulton Speech are considered the starting points of the Cold War.
The “Long Telegram” was sent to Washington on February 22, 1946, from the US Embassy in Moscow by the future “architect of the Cold War” and the ideological father of the containment policy, American diplomat George F. Kennan, in which he wrote about the impossibility of cooperation with the USSR.
The Fulton speech, delivered by British Prime Minister Winston Churchill on March 5, 1946, in the United States, was considered in the USSR to be the signal for the beginning of the Cold War.
– At the same time, the Cold War was a period of large-scale subjectivity of the White House leaders. “Such an international confrontation is essentially a war of narratives, meaning that each side is potentially able to put forward a certain worldview framework for a model of world order,” Shabanov notes.
As the political scientist explained, the totalitarian USSR tried to promote a utopian picture of communist life and false mythologies. It is believed that the United States won the Cold War by promoting the liberal model that is most effective in a globalized world. The end of the Cold War is conventionally considered to be the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Signs of the Cold War
Mikhail Shabanov noted that the Cold War has several distinctive features:
- worldview and ideological struggle between the countries – the poles of ideology are very clearly defined, which are extremely different;
- military and political bloc confrontation;
- growing regional conflicts around the center of confrontation.
A repeat of the Cold War: is it possible?
– The prerequisites for a new Cold War have in fact already been established. However, a natural question arises: who are the parties to the confrontation, what is the nature of this confrontation, and what changes are potentially possible. “The confrontation of a global nature is taking place along the lines of the United States and China,” the political scientist noted.
According to the expert, this confrontation is polarizing the world, but it is not only a situation of military and political separation. There is also an economic dimension to relations at the global and regional level (China has economic influence on the Global South).
This emerging economic order of things is more difficult to reshape, to recreate new conditions. There is also a paradigm of “soft power” influence from the poles of confrontation, i.e., purely cultural integrators are no less effective in the global world of narrative choice.
– The New Cold War, which has been discussed since 2010, is now a distinct phenomenon. In the context of current events, this term can be used to characterize the state of relations between the democratic regimes of the West and Russia,” Shabanov said.
According to the political scientist, in recent years, Russia has almost completely become geopolitically dependent on China as a major player on the new world chessboard. This dependence is economic in nature and is based primarily on technological and financial dependence.
– That is, modern Russia is simply not able to act as a full-fledged pole of confrontation with the Western world,” Mikhail Shabanov believes.
Will a Cold War Begin Between Ukraine and Russia: What the Expert Says
Mykhailo Shabanov explained that Ukraine is gradually building its “Euro-Atlanticism” vector, integrating into the single European space and taking an active part in creating effective “geopolitical triangles,” such as the London-Warsaw-Kyiv triangle.
– A cold war between Ukraine and the Russian Federation is possible as one of the scenarios after the end of the open bloody confrontation with the aggressor. In fact, the hybrid order war (as a segment of the Cold War) against Ukraine has been actively waged since 2014 as the Putin regime’s response to the revolutionary changes in our country and its European integration course,” the political scientist believes.
According to him, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 radically changed the emphasis, and all the strategic plans of the Russian leadership became obvious and mostly failed. At the current stage, when the war with Russia is becoming a positional one, it is difficult to give a clear forecast of the timing of its end or systemic changes in its nature.
– The “long war” is already changing the worldview not only of the Ukrainian people and political elite, but also of representatives of the Western political establishment. “Financial and military assistance to Ukraine determines the strategy of geopolitical support and the understanding that this war is a large-scale civilizational clash,” emphasizes Mikhail Shabanov.
In his opinion, the friendly contacts of the Russian nomenklatura with the leadership of Iran and the DPRK and the supply of weapons to the war in Ukraine by these states are very telling.
– “In fact, a new ‘axis of evil’ is being built of totalitarian political regimes that are isolated by sanctions but continue to strategically converge with each other,” the political scientist says.
In his opinion, a cold war between Ukraine and Russia is possible only if the military conflict is partially frozen. With a change of political regime in the aggressor state and a “reset” of the elite nomenklatura, but with the common power structure preserved, the war is likely to continue as an active confrontation.
According to the political scientist, the regional cold war cannot be beneficial for Ukraine, because it is a state of permanent conflict, which is expressed in
- an arms race;
- nuclear blackmail by the Russian regime;
- provocations and manifestations of “proxy war”;
- information campaigns of Russian propaganda.
According to Mykhailo Shabanov, the ways to avoid such a scenario are:
- arms buildup;
- active cooperation with international institutions;
- opening new military production facilities in Ukraine.
– That is, our steps should be aimed at increasing the interest of Western partners in the unwavering defense position of our country, and it is also logical and necessary to structurally “dismantle” the existing political regime in Russia, its ideological “defascization,” the political scientist summarized.
