Will Ukraine receive US permission to strike at Russia and how will it affect the frontline – expert opinion
The day before, a group of congressional lawmakers called on US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin to allow Ukraine to use US weapons to strike strategic military targets in Russia. Similar statements were made by Mike Johnson, a spokesman for the US House of Representatives, and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
If the US makes a positive decision, it will affect the situation at the frontline, and what are the chances that such a permit will be granted – read in the Fakty ICTV article.
Will it affect the situation at the front
In a commentary to Fakty ICTV, Ukrainian military expert and historian Mykhailo Zhyrokhov explained that the mere permission to use US weapons on Russian territory will do little to change the situation – the appropriate number of weapons is needed to launch such strikes.
– Even if the Americans give this permission to use weapons against certain targets in Russia, it should be understood that the resources they provide are not enough to deliver a strategic strike against the enemy.
These are just statements if they are not backed up by supplies of military equipment, for example, 200 ATACMS missiles. Because we understand that a certain number of missiles are shot down by Russian air defence, and a certain number simply do not hit. With the number of missiles provided by the Americans, Ukraine can hit 5 important points in Russia, and this does not do much in a strategic sense,” the expert said.
He emphasised that Ukraine is currently hitting targets in Russia with drones, but it is obvious that this has no strategic advantage.
– “They hit a refinery and a warehouse, but in general, this has a rather small impact on the situation at the front. And even if we get the permission, we have about 20 missiles, right? And we are thinking about where to launch them – either at facilities in Crimea or at Russian facilities in Belgorod – and the enemy has thousands of such facilities. We need hundreds of missiles for the permit to make sense,” said Zhyrokhov.
“But if we have both the permission and enough weapons, it will change the situation at the front. But for now, this is a rather unrealistic scenario.
What do the statements of the congressmen indicate
According to political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, such statements by the Americans should be viewed in the context of the internal political struggle.
– These statements should be taken in the context of the inter-party election campaign and look at who is saying them. In this case, it is the Republicans, who have been criticising US President Joe Biden and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan for a long time. In particular, for their inconsistency and indecision, for not helping Ukraine enough and ineffectively,” he said.
Fesenko noted that when it is a subject of inter-party struggle, the law of politics applies: if your competitors criticise you, you will not meet them halfway, do what they promote, otherwise you will demonstrate your weakness.
– Of course, this is the right criticism, a fair criticism, but, unfortunately, this criticism alone will not work. The other thing that can have a positive effect is a discussion, as was the case with ATACMS, air defence systems, tanks, etc. When there were also red lines in the US administration, but as a result of both the real situation in Ukraine and the discussion that unfolded in the US, the Biden administration eventually overcame them,” the political scientist stressed.
What are the chances of getting permission to strike at Russia
Unfortunately, according to Volodymyr Fesenko, the criticism, since it comes from the Republicans, will not affect the White House, but the real situation in Ukraine and the discussion may help to obtain the appropriate authorisation.
– We can even see disagreements within the administration itself, where Blinken has a rather flexible position on this issue, saying that Ukraine can decide where and how to use the weapons it receives, and there is criticism from Republicans and the official White House position. It’s good that this discussion has started,” says the expert.
So in this case, perhaps not now, but later, under some other circumstances, the US will lift its veto on the use of US weapons at least in the frontline area.
– This is where concessions can be made – the lifting of restrictions on the use of American weapons in combat operations in the frontline zone, for strikes in the Belgorod region or in the Kursk region, if there is a Russian offensive in the Sumy region,” he says.
“This will not happen immediately and, unfortunately, tragic events can accelerate this process.
– Even now, the tragic situation in Kharkiv may have an impact, we may need another tragedy. Unfortunately, the death of people can really influence, although not always, some political decisions. Or the deterioration of the military situation, when it will be difficult for us to deter the Russian offensive, and eventually the US will realise this and give permission to use HIMARS, for example, on Russian bases along the Ukrainian-Russian border,” Fesenko emphasises.
Why the US has not yet given permission
Excessive caution on the part of the United States is hampering the granting of permission to Ukraine to use American weapons against strategic military targets in Russia. According to the political scientist, the US is simply afraid that Russia will use nuclear weapons in response to a green light on this issue.
– For example, the day before, Russia began exercises using weapons of mass destruction. And the US is looking at this with caution, paying attention to such actions by Russia. They think that if we allow HIMARS or ATACMS to be used, for example, to strike the Belgorod, Rostov or Kursk regions, then the Russians may use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine in response,” Fesenko says.
However, according to the political scientist, most experts believe that this is an exaggeration and Putin is more frightening, psychologically influencing the Biden administration, and, unfortunately, it works.
– This is a psychological red line in the minds of Biden, Sullivan, and some other senior officials in the Biden administration. I think it will be overcome in some time,” Fesenko says.
He believes that Ukraine can influence this caution on the part of the states and draw attention to the fact that this is an exaggerated threat, that Putin will not take such a step now that he has the advantage in terms of troops and weapons.
