Russian troops near Bakhmut are significantly exhausted – ISW
Experts of the ISW Institute for the Study of War compared the situation of Russian troops in Bakhmut with the situation in Kherson in August 2022. According to experts, Russian combat losses are likely to force the Russian military in the Bakhmut area to use unit-sized assault groups.
On December 27, the spokesman of the Eastern Group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel Serhii Cherevaty, reported that Russian troops in the Bakhmut area are no longer operating in the form of company and battalion tactical groups, but are operating in smaller groups of ten to fifteen servicemen.
Russian troops degraded from company and battalion tactical groups to separate detachment-sized groups in the same way as Russian units in the Kherson region degraded in August 2022. At the same time, ISW assessed that the Russian military’s use of one-squadron-sized military groups in the Kherson region indicates that the Russian offensive has reached its climax, as the situation of the Russian ground forces has deteriorated to such an extent that they can no longer operate in sufficient numbers to achieve significant gains.
The pace of Russian troop advances in the Bakhmut area has recently slowed amid increasing manpower and ammunition constraints, which will likely prevent them from sustaining a high tempo of offensive operations in the area in the near term. The reported use of squad-sized groups by the Russian military is likely the result of a long, grueling war and indicates the degradation of larger doctrinal formations above the platoon level.
The pace of Russia’s advance in the Bakhmut area is likely to slow, if Russian forces continue to advance at all, unless significant new reinforcements and a supply of artillery shells arrive soon, experts say.
