Russia is unlikely to seize much more territory in Ukraine this year.
This was the opinion expressed by the Director of National Intelligence of the USA, Avril Gaines, during the hearings in the Senate.
She stated that the military of the Russian Armed Forces probably will not be able to continue hostilities at the current level, even with the possible capture of Bakhmut, as fierce fighting continues in the city in eastern Ukraine.
After serious setbacks and heavy losses on the battlefield, “we do not expect the Russian military to recover enough this year to achieve major territorial gains,” said the head of US National Intelligence.
Gaines, citing broad American intelligence circles, said that a year after the invasion of Ukraine and the failure to achieve the main objectives of the operation, Putin probably now has a better understanding of the limitations of his forces.
Moscow’s military power is now severely limited by troop losses and weapons depletion, exacerbated by trade restrictions and sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies, she said.
Putin “appears to be focused on more modest military goals right now,” Avril Gaines told the Senate Intelligence Committee.
– If Russia does not begin mandatory mobilization and does not detect significant supplies of ammunition from third parties, it will be increasingly difficult for it to maintain even the current level of offensive operations, – she added.
As a result, Russian forces “can completely switch over” to holding and defending the territories they currently occupy, the head of intelligence believes.
However, Russian President Vladimir Putin most likely believes that time is working in his favor, she added.
In her opinion, Putin likely believes that dragging out the war with periodic breaks in hostilities “may be his best remaining path to securing Russian strategic interests in Ukraine, even if it takes years.”
