Ukrainian Armed Forces advance in Kherson region and escalation near Avdiivka: main events on the frontline over the month
Another month of full-scale war with Russia has passed. November was very busy. Many events took place at the front during this time.
The occupiers are advancing near Avdiivka and even have partial success in the area of the Promka. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are fortifying on the left bank of the Kherson region.
Zelensky calls for speeding up the construction of fortifications in certain areas. Read about the elimination of Russian soldiers who executed Ukrainian defenders and other important events from the front in the ICTV Fakty article.
Kherson sector
ISW reports advances on the left bank of the Kherson region, but the Ukrainian command hardly comments on this issue.
In fact, according to Yevhen Dykyi, former platoon commander of the Aidar battalion and ATO veteran, very important events are taking place on the left bank of the Dnipro River, and the General Staff refrains from disclosing information in order not to harm the Defense Forces and not to give the population false hope.
– If our foothold is not only held, but also significantly expanded, the highway connecting Crimea to Melitopol will be at risk. This is the main highway that carries the main logistics of the southern group of occupiers. The only alternative is a very long way from Rostov through Mariupol,” says the military.
Dykyi notes that currently all the supplies for the Russian military, in particular in the Zaporizhzhia sector, come from Crimea, and thus it will be possible to cut off the occupiers’ channels of delivery of weapons and personnel. However, according to the expert, this is possible only in case of optimistic developments.
Deep State map
– This is a good scenario for us. There are no secrets here, just look at the map. And of course, it’s no secret to our enemies, and they are very concerned about this bridgehead. At the moment they are gathering a large group of military and will try to demolish the Ukrainian Armed Forces foothold,” added Dykyi.
However, the ATO veteran emphasized that the occupiers are currently experiencing a strong personnel shortage. Therefore, the Russians are assembling this strike group from the entire frontline. According to him, they have almost gathered 70 thousand soldiers needed to push the Ukrainian defenders back from the left bank. However, time will tell whether the Russian military will succeed.
Avdiivka direction and construction of fortifications
The most difficult situation remains in the Avdiivka sector. Although at the beginning of the month, when the occupiers had just started advancing near Avdiivka, the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed a record number of equipment and personnel, in just a few weeks the enemy began to gradually push through the Ukrainian defense.
Geolocation footage from November 24 shows that the Russians have advanced north of Krasnohorivka, 7 km northwest of Avdiivka. The third wave of the Russian offensive is currently underway there.
Recently, President Zelenskyy said that Ukraine needs to strengthen and accelerate the construction of fortifications in several key areas, including Avdiivka, to deter the enemy and prevent it from advancing further.
According to the former Aidar commander, these fortifications should have been built long before the full-scale invasion, at least six months before the start of the big war. Then, perhaps, it would have been possible to restrain the enemy in some parts of the front. However, it will not hurt now either.
– I understand perfectly well why they were not built last year. There were illusions about a rapid advance, about a quick breakthrough of the enemy front. So what’s the point of building fortifications if we are about to take out the orcs, and then we will dig in along the 1991 border. But it was an illusion, and that’s why what is being done now is absolutely logical,” says Dykyi.
NATO-Ukraine Council and the F-16
The first meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council took place this week. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg spoke about the opening of a training center for F-16 pilots in Romania. At the same time, in his latest essay, Modern Positional Warfare and How to Win It, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi does not even mention F-16 fighters.
According to military expert and reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Roman Svitan, F-16s are only part of the weapons Ukraine needs to turn the tide of war.
– It is the weaponry that makes the F-16 a flying fortress. It is the air launcher that it can carry plus the long-range detection, radar guidance and tracking system that must also be transmitted from the F-16. It is integrated into the overall system of air defense and battlefield missions. This includes AWACS long-range radar detection and tracking aircraft, as well as ground-based systems with long-range locators. This is a whole system. Therefore, it is important to discuss the transfer of the entire complex with our partners. Everything will depend on how the F-16 will be delivered to us, as a complex or as a “flying wing,” he said.
Execution of Ukrainian soldiers
On Sunday, December 3, the head of the Avdiivka city military administration, Vitaliy Barabash, said that the Russian military, who executed two Ukrainian defenders when they surrendered, had been eliminated.
The Russian military has no idea of the rules of a fair war. They have only one task – to destroy the Ukrainian people by all means, emphasizes expert Roman Svitan.
– “This is pure terrorism. The entire Russian army is a terrorist organization that should have been officially recognized long ago, and the Russian Empire should be recognized as a state sponsor of terrorism. We know very well how the Russian military treats prisoners of war and ordinary Ukrainian people. This is genocide and they are carrying it out as best they can,” he added.
Missile shortage and attacks by the Shaheds
Due to sanctions and a lack of spare parts, Russia can no longer produce a large number of missiles, so the occupiers are increasingly using attack drones during air attacks. However, we should not relax, because the fact that the Kremlin is keeping missiles safe means that the Russians are preparing to launch a massive missile strike, which may happen on New Year’s holidays, says military officer Yevhen Dykyi.
– The Russians are actually in short supply of missiles. Now they are producing about 30 missiles a month, all types combined. Of these, less than 10 are ballistic missiles, which are harder to intercept. It turns out that they produce one missile strike per month, so it seems that they are still accumulating missiles so that they can launch several massive strikes in a row, with a difference of, for example, a week. But for this they need to assemble them,” he says.
Instead, according to Dykyi, the Russians were able to establish drone production. The invaders have set up a secret factory in Alabama that produces attack drones under an Iranian license.
Another difficult winter is ahead, and the occupiers will do everything possible to make things harder for us, Ukrainians.
Due to the difficult weather conditions, combat operations on the contact line may slow down, but the Armed Forces have time to prepare for the spring counteroffensive.
