The Russian Federation has no strength: Budanov predicted what will happen after Avdiivka
After Avdiivka , Russia will probably try to achieve its main strategic goal – to reach the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by the end of the year, but it will lack the strength to do so.
This opinion was expressed by the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
What will happen at the front after Avdiivka
He recognized the difficult situation in which the Defense Forces of Ukraine are, despite the superiority in numbers and weapons, “but Russia also has problems.”
According to him, the professional army of the Russian Federation was largely destroyed in the first year of the invasion of Ukraine, so now it is throwing untrained conscripts into battle.
Budanov also noted that the aggressor country uses more artillery shells than it can produce, and although hundreds of tanks entered service last year, most of them are old models, removed from storage and repaired, and only 178 were new.
The head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence explained the cessation of massive missile attacks on Ukrainian cities by the fact that Russian supplies ran out. As a result, it will be difficult for Russia to achieve its main strategic goal of capturing all the eastern districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions this year.
– They will not have enough strength, – concluded Budanov.
When a new counteroffensive of the Armed Forces is possible
The WSJ writes that Western officials and analysts consider Budanov’s forecast to be the best scenario for Ukraine this year.
– If Ukraine can conduct a smart defensive struggle, exhausting Russian forces, while simultaneously rebuilding its own, then, in their opinion, it will be able to launch a new counteroffensive against a weakened adversary in 2025, – the publication says.
According to a study by the London think tank of the Royal United Services Institute, Russian troops will probably reach their peak at the end of the year, and in 2025 they will increasingly experience shortages of ammunition and armored vehicles.
