Russian offensive, use of X-69 missiles and provocations at ZNPP: the main events of the war over the week

Russian troops have intensified their assault operations in eastern Ukraine and intend to occupy Chasiv Yar in Donetsk region by 9 May, a symbolic date for the Russians.

At the same time, the Russian army used X-69 missiles against Ukraine for the first time, striking at the energy infrastructure of the Ukrainian state.

Oleksiy Hetman, a veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, told ICTV in an interview about whether Russia has launched its offensive, what to expect from the new X-69 cruise missiles and why the topic of Zaporizhzhya NPP has become more active.

Situation at the frontline

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi said the day before that the situation on the eastern front had deteriorated significantly.

According to him, Russian attacks are largely facilitated by the weather, including dry soil and the absence of abnormal heat or cold. The Russians have mainly intensified their assault operations in the Liman and Bakhmut directions, and are trying to break through the Pokrovsk direction.

As Oleksiy Hetman points out, these escalations can be considered the beginning of the Russian offensive, which was expected in late May or early June.

– For some reason, some people thought that the beginning of June would be like going to school, that they would start some large-scale offensive on 1 June. But no. Most likely, it will happen the way we see it now. Of course, this is an assumption, but based on what we are seeing, this assumption has the right to life,” the military said.

According to the soldier, the words of the Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Syrysky, about the aggravation of the situation, indicate that we should expect the enemy to continue serious offensive actions at the front.

– In fact, we can assume that this is the beginning of the offensive that we expect in early June. And the very beginning of June will most likely be the peak of this activity, when Russia will have accumulated a sufficient number of troops and forces to be involved,” says the reserve major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

As for the directions of a possible large-scale Russian offensive, Hetman says it will probably be in the areas where the most active fighting is taking place.

– “Not earlier than in a month, maybe in mid-May, they will already understand whether they are able to form new units, what kind of units they are… And then the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and Gerasimov (the commander of the Russian occupation forces in Ukraine, Valery – Ed.) will see what they have and what they can form. Then they can make decisions on where these armies can be used,” the military said.

“The enemy command already has preliminary plans for an offensive, but it is important for them to understand where exactly they should attempt to advance.

Separately, Oleksiy Hetman commented on Syrskyi’s recent statement that the Russian military command aims to capture Chasiv Yar by 9 May 2024.

– “It is very dangerous that General Syrsky said that the Russians have a deadline of 9 May. This means that no one on the Russian side will reckon with the amount of manpower they will throw. That is why it is dangerous. Whether it succeeds or fails, I would like it to fail, because there is a railway hub near Kostyantynivka, which is very important for us, and there is a lowland where it will be easier for the enemy to work,” the military said.

To counter these attempts by Russia, Ukraine needs to deploy additional forces and provide the necessary weapons, says the reserve major.

He adds that, given that Chasiv Yar is a tactical height, it will be easier for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to defend these positions.

Mobilisation in Russia

According to a reserve major in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia is recruiting up to 1,000 people daily to wage war against Ukraine as part of shadow mobilisation on its territory. In this way, Russian troops compensate for the killed and wounded invaders. And this is not counting those who are planned to be mobilised, Hetman said.

– “Given that joining the Russian Armed Forces is a gradual process, we should not expect that they will accumulate these forces and then throw them away somewhere. They will also do this, manning certain units and adding new ones. Defence Minister Shoigu has already said that Russia wants to form at least two armies. And as soon as they are formed, they will choose up to four areas where they will conduct additional offensive operations,” the military said.

At the same time, we should not expect the enemy to stop in the areas where assaults are already taking place, as they will only strengthen the enemy.

According to Hetman, a large-scale mobilisation campaign in Russia, also scheduled for early June, which President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had previously mentioned, indicates that the Kremlin is preparing for large-scale losses during the offensive.

– The Russians believe that “women will give birth”, as they say. They do not particularly care about the number of people who may die. Any losses are not significant for them. And the fact that they take civilians out of the economy doesn’t hurt them, as they say. Their tactics have not changed, and they don’t know how to fight in any other way,” the military says.

Oleksiy Hetman adds that since Russia has no advantages in terms of technology, if we compare the Russian army with other armies in the world, and compared to Ukraine, the situation is close to parity.

– Therefore, they achieve success with infantry, where many people die, but they have certain tactical successes. This infantry is gradually, in the third year of the war, those who managed to save their lives during this time, were able to learn (to participate in combat operations – Ed.),” says the veteran of the war with Russia.

Russian provocations at Zaporizhzhia NPP

On 7 April, Russia carried out a provocation at Zaporizhzhia NPP by blowing up a drone. The explosion of the drone was also recorded by the IAEA inspectors who are at the plant.

After that, the occupiers began to make accusations against Ukraine, which official Kyiv rejected.

According to Oleksiy Hetman, since modern warfare is hybrid, the enemy uses hybrid methods of influence to divert attention, among other things.

– “While they are preparing offensive actions, they need to divert the world’s attention to nuclear safety, so that it slows down financial assistance to Ukraine and assistance with weapons,” he says.

Photo: Getty ImagesAccording to the Armed Forces reserve major, blowing up a drone near a nuclear power plant building would not significantly change the safety situation at the plant, as they are built to withstand a direct hit from an aircraft.

– “Experts, nuclear physicists and engineers emphasise that in order to destroy a nuclear power plant, a nuclear explosion at the level of tactical weapons is required,” he says.

“Therefore, such talk about provocations at ZNPP affects people and diverts attention from supporting Ukraine or other issues.

The use of the X-69 cruise missile

This week, there have been indications that Russia may have begun using X-69 cruise missiles to strike Ukraine’s energy facilities. According to observers, these missiles are a modification of the X-59 missiles.

In particular, it was reported that these missiles were used to strike the Trypillia thermal power plant.

According to a military analyst, these missiles are a certain novelty in the Russian-Ukrainian war.

– The missile is really new, it is not yet in service in Russia, it is only being tested. We see that they are testing it in combat, using it against our energy facilities and thermal power plants,” says Hetman.

The military adds that this missile is not too different from the X-59 Ovod, but has an increased range and reduced size.

– “The reduced size is because it was planned that this missile would be used in Su-57 aircraft, and this aircraft is announced by Russia as a fifth-generation aircraft, one of the features of which is closed fuselages. That’s why they tried to make it smaller to fit into this Su-57,” explains Hetman.

“The danger of this missile is that it can fly at low altitudes, hiding behind the terrain. For example, such missiles can fly along riverbeds or hide behind hills.

– Radar stations cannot see (these missiles – Ed.). Radars work by emitting an electromagnetic field similar to light. Just as you can’t shine a flashlight around a corner or through a wall, radar can’t illuminate a target over a mountain or other natural obstacle,” he says.

Therefore, Hetman adds, the priority in the development of the X-69 missile was not speed, but manoeuvrability and the ability to fly low.