A threat to Toretsk? What do the statements about Russia’s preparations for a new offensive in Donetsk region mean?
In recent days, the Russian occupation forces have intensified their attacks in the Donetsk region, namely in the Toretsk sector, northwest of Horlivka. Subsequently, military observers such as the DeepState project reported the capture of the village of Shumy by Russian troops.
At the same time, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) point out that in parallel, there has been a decrease in the intensity of attacks in the north of Kharkiv region. In their opinion, this may indicate that Russia is preparing for a summer offensive, or even the beginning of such an offensive.
What is the significance of the Russian advance on the Toretsk direction, as well as what are the intentions of the military and political leadership of the Russian terrorist state – ICTV Fakty talked to military analyst, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Petro Chernyk.
New Russian offensive in Donetsk region?
According to Chernyk, on October 7, 2023, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin issued an order to go to the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Since then, Russia has launched an offensive that has not ended to this day.
– The offensive? It hasn’t stopped for a second. Since October 7, it has not stopped for a second,” the expert says.
Moreover, the analyst continues, since then, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have managed to disrupt Putin’s conditional deadlines four times: first, until mid-December, when the so-called Direct Line of the Russian President was held, when he spoke to the Russian population; second, until the presidential elections in mid-March; then, until the day of the dictator’s inauguration in Russia (May 7) and Victory Day (May 9), and, finally, until the Peace Summit in Switzerland, which took place on June 15-16.
– Why are they so angry and why are they pushing with all their might? Because they are having problems with mobilization. Why? Because they can safely mobilize 30-32 thousand people, and in May we killed 39 thousand (occupiers – Ed.). They need to announce a large-scale mobilization, and he (Putin – Ed.) is terribly afraid of this,” Chernyk explains.
According to the military analyst, preparations are currently underway for the second round of talks at the Peace Summit, which is expected to take place in the fall. Therefore, Chernyk says, the Kremlin leader needs to “show results, that he can do something.”
– “His plan is very clear: to take these two regions in their entirety and say to the whole world, ‘I have completed a special military operation, and Ukrainians do not want to end the war. And there will be a lot of states in the world, from Hungary to Slovakia to Turkey, and this is an incomplete list, that will say that it’s time to look for a form of exit (from the war – Ed.). That’s why (the Russians – Ed.) are pushing. For them, nothing is changing and will not change in the near future. Donetsk region completely, Luhansk region completely,” the expert says.
At the same time, he reminds us that the situation at the front is dynamic, and despite Russia’s offensive, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have made progress, recently partially recapturing enemy positions in the Serebryansky Forest in Luhansk Oblast, an area that is 98% occupied. In turn, if we look at the Kremlin’s goals, the Donetsk region is occupied by 58%, and the Russians have “something to sweat over.”
As for the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) assessment of the risks of an offensive, Chernyk says that ISW should not be taken as the absolute truth of the analysis.
A threat to Toretsk in the Donetsk region?
At the same time, the analyst points out that, in addition to the city of Toretsk, all settlements in this area are under threat if the Russians manage to develop an offensive there. Therefore, from a tactical point of view, it does not matter what Russia’s goals are in this area of the frontline, as the Kremlin’s main goal is the complete occupation of two regions in eastern Ukraine.
– All the settlements in front of the contact line that can be seen on the map are at risk. Nobody knows where they will accumulate the critical combat potential that will allow them to break through at least five or six kilometers.
There is a third law of war – the hidden maneuver. Therefore, detailing (which settlements are under threat – Ed.) is a very wrong thing. Why? Because positions sometimes change several times a day…
We need to understand the enemy’s strategic intentions and revolve around that, not around a particular village or even a street. This is a wrong analytical path,” the expert explains.
Thus, the media creates a distortion, Chernyk continues, when fear spreads that a certain settlement is “about to be captured.” Or, on the contrary, “it gives hope that we are about to take something back.”
– This is wrong. The contact line is a living organism that can change by several kilometers,” he says.
“Therefore, it is not correct to talk specifically about threats to Toretsk or Pivnichne, which is located in close proximity to the combat line.
