Corridor to Transnistria: Is Ukraine being attacked from occupied Moldova?

In recent days, several events have happened around Transnistria, which the authorities of the self-proclaimed republic have called “terrorist attacks”.

There is a real chance that Russia will decide to use the illegal formation on the territory of Moldova as another platform for the attack on Ukraine. But will its “troops” affect the situation on the battlefield?

Corridor to Transnistria

Russia has recently announced an updated plan for the so-called second phase of the war against Ukraine, which includes the occupation of southern Ukraine with an exit to the borders of Transnistria.

That is an attempt to create a land corridor not only to Crimea but also to the self-proclaimed republic on the territory of Moldova.

At first, they perceived this statement as a bold attempt to escalate the situation because it was clear to all that during the 50 days of a full-scale invasion, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had consolidated key positions.

Now the Russian occupiers are trying to advance near Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia but without considerable success.

However, how far they can move and whether they can at all is an open question. Oleksii Arestovych, the Adviser to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, could barely restrain his laughter during the briefing when he spoke about a possible offensive from the Kherson region.

The head of the Center of Military and Legal Studies, Oleksandr Musienko, is convinced that the goal in such a scenario is Odesa. But to break through the land corridor there now is an unrealistic task for the Russian occupiers.

– At least the factor of a breakthrough of the Russian troops in Odesa is missing as they are effectively restrained around Mykolaiv and are forcing back further, – he explains.

Prospects of a new front line

It is difficult to say whether Russia has decided to use its next puppet, Transnistria, to open another front live against Ukraine.

Several “terrorist attacks” have taken place in the unrecognized republic, which could serve the world community as a so-called excuse because of the launch of armed aggression by Transnistria against Ukraine.

However, the world does not believe in any statements of Russia and its puppets.

According to Ihor Kozii, a military expert at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation, if Russia wants to use Transnistria in its plans, it will not need provocations.

– If Russia wants to get involved in the war, it doesn’t care if there are provocations or not.

That is, they are needed for (preservation. – Ed.) the face of the Russian Federation in front of the world community, but in no way needed for the start of the war, – says the expert.

Of course, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are ready to repel enemy attacks, as the scenario of escalation by the self-proclaimed republic in Moldova was not ruled out by anyone in early April.

And although this will distract Ukrainian soldiers for a while, it is doubtful whether there will be enough forces to succeed.

– Apparently, the contingent of troops in Transnistria, together with those, whom they can mobilize to form an army, is doubtful enough to conduct offensive operations on their own.

In addition, they have problems with rear provision, as the airspace is blocked and Transnistria has cut off from supplies from Russia, – says Musienko.

Nowadays, Transnistria has announced the conscription of men under the age of 55 to a “special meeting”. At the same time, residents began to leave the unrecognized republic en masse.

Many of them have a clear understanding that for the “second army of the world” the war has already resulted in more than 22 thousand killed and thousands of destroyed equipment. And for Transnistrian militants, the meeting with the Armed Forces of Ukraine can end much worse.

Preventive strike

According to Musienko, for Russia to be able to use Transnistria for its purposes, it will need one of two conditions:

• to bypass Mykolaiv and to come out in the direction of Odesa;
• to land the landing forces on the coast of Odesa.

We know perfectly well how Mykolaiv keeps defense therefore this option for the enemy is actually absent. And landing naval landing forces will be high-priced for the invaders.

– We don’t yet observe that there will be a landing of the landing forces. And even if Russia dares to go for this scenario, it should be understood that Ukraine has already demonstrated how it can effectively use anti-ship missiles. It could mean the loss of several landing ships (by Russia – Ed.), – explains the head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies.

Arestovych has repeatedly noted that the destruction of the Russian pseudo-republic on the territory of Moldova would not be a problem for Ukraine.

In fact, this would protect not only Ukraine but also our neighbor from possible armed aggression by the Russian-controlled republic.

Kozii points out that Transnistria is a territory of Moldova, even if it is occupied. Therefore, any actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine before the militants of the unrecognized republic will cross the border of Ukraine are impossible.

– If they enter the territory of Ukraine, they will get “on the head”. In fact, all forces were created for this, the country and the intelligence community are controlling the situation.

I do not see any problems here. Everything will be solved quickly, without unnecessary problems. The army has learned to do this… All that is needed for us to start is for these incomprehensible groups to cross the border with Ukraine, – Kozii believes.

The reaction of Moldova

Moldova must be ready for unexpected twists of fate. That is why President Maia Sandu convened a meeting of the Security Council.

However, the results concluded that all the “terrorist attacks” were similar to an attempt to “find out the relationship” between certain groups in the region.

It seems that Sandu does not understand all the responsibility that awaits her if aggression against Ukraine will start from the territory of her state.

– They (the top leadership of Moldova. – Ed.) also need to think about how they have the right to stand aside so that later they are not being accused of anything.

And thus – they are trying to maintain neutrality. However, what can it be like, if Belarus uses its territory to conduct aggression of the Russian Federation, and Russian troops can also step out from Transnistria? What will be the situation of the President of Moldova then? How had she defended herself in terms of international law? – Kozii asks.

There are PACE and UN resolutions that mention concepts such as occupation and occupation forces. But they may not be enough to “withdraw responsibility”.

The best solution for Moldova is to state emphatically that Chișinău considers Transnistria an occupied territory.

In addition, it is necessary to prepare not only for the political consequences, because Moldova may become a new goal of the Kremlin.

In that case, it will all depend on how prepared Sandu and her country are for the confrontation.

In general, the events around Transnistria are similar to the convulsions of the Kremlin’s military machine, which is losing in Ukraine and trying to find at least some “victory” by any means.

Everyone should understand that such a “genius” tactical move of Russia can bring it more problems than success in the war against our state.