Designating Russia as a terrorist state: prospects and consequences

On April 18, Ned Price, the Spokesperson for the U.S. Department of State, said the US was seriously considering giving Russia the status of a sponsor of terrorism.

This will be not only a powerful economic blow to Russia, but also a signal to the whole world. But is such a decision real today?

Prospects for recognition

Information about the request to designate Russia as a terrorist state appeared on April 15 in American daily newspaper the Washington Post.

The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky allegedly asked for this personally.

There is no guarantee that this will happen. So far, representatives of the White House and the State Department do not dare to claim that the United States still recognizes Russia as a sponsor of terrorism, although they are studying such an option.

According to political scientist Ihor Reiterovych, there is a significant chance that Russia will be still recognized as a sponsor of terrorism.

– This decision can be made, because the package of sanctions that is in force against the Russian Federation on the part of the United States is largely related to those sanctions that apply to states in respect of which this status (of states sponsors of terrorism – Ed.) is imposed…

To make the decision is quite simply. But most likely, another red line is needed to be crossed by the Russian Federation, – he explains.

This is a big step for the United States, because even during the Cold War, when the Soviet Union openly supported organizations that were terrorist to the Americans, they did not recognize it as a sponsor of terrorism.

Currently, the list of states sponsors of terrorism includes:

• Syria;
• Iran;
• Cuba;
• the DPRK.

The reasons for designating the status vary. For example, the DPRK has been re-added to the list due to the threat to the world of nuclear weapons.

In summary, each of these countries has consistently supported acts of international terrorism.

There is already enough evidence in Ukraine about the actions of Russian invaders, which can be called terrorist. All that remains is for the United States to have the political will to put Russia on the list.

Worse than sanctions

Being on the list of states sponsors of terrorism will inevitably lead to increased sanctions against Russia.

It is difficult to say the specifics, but the sanctions packages that the United States is still preparing would be accelerated.

Most likely, these will be restrictions related to the military sphere in Russia and the freezing of assets of certain state-owned companies and government officials.

However, political scientist Oleksiy Yakubin emphasizes that Russia has already found itself under sanctions at the level of those imposed against the states – sponsors of terrorism.

And adding Russia to the list will be worse than new sanctions.

– Recognition of the state as a sponsor of terrorism by the United States means isolation from Western countries. It’s not even a package of sanctions, it’s much tougher.

If you look at the current sanctions packages, you can see that Russia is already largely isolated from the West, – says Yakubin.

Strengthening US sanctions policy will not be the only problem for Russia if it is recognized as a sponsor of terrorism. Especially since the United States is not going to stop on the path of isolation of Russia.

–This will allow for additional, tougher sanctions. Also, the so-called diplomatic immunity is being removed, which allows the victims of this regime to file lawsuits against the country in US courts, which opens up enormous prospects for Ukraine, – said Reiterovych.

The West is distancing itself

Although Russia’s status as a sponsor of terrorism will potentially be granted only by the United States, it will also indirectly affect relations with other countries.

First, it could again speed up the imposition of new sanctions on Russia, but already by the EU, for example.

Second, few in the West want to deal with Russia in the future. If they continue to cooperate with Russia, they will be targeted by the United States. Potentially, they could lose the American market, which is definitely more interesting than the Russian one.

– This will generally affect the Сollective West. In that case, Western countries will understand that if they engage in certain trade and economic activities with Russia, there is a high probability that the United States, for its part, may initiate certain economic restrictions.

Whether this will have a global impact outside the West on countries like India or China is an open question. On the contrary, this could increase the decentralization of the world. Then we see that Asian countries will continue to do business with Russia as usual, and Western countries will be limited, – Yakubin predicts.

That is, the issue of recognizing Russia as a sponsor of terrorism is important not so much for sanctions, which even without this decision are ready to strengthen many countries, but as a signal to the world: Russia is an exile with whom no one should deal.

At the same time, Russia is unlikely to be excluded from many important structures such as the UN Security Council.

And if the Americans still dare to add Russia to the list of states sponsors of terrorism, it will be more difficult for them to communicate with it.

Terrorism at the highest level

Against the background of such movements in American politics, the question arises: why not to immediately recognize Russian President Vladimir Putin as a terrorist?

This could be a stronger signal to the world and create a reason for his arrest in many countries around the world. However, Reiterovych would not advise to count on such a scenario.

– I think that the United States will not go into personal moments now, given Putin’s inadequacy and unpredictability in his actions, – explains the political scientist.

And even without such a step, the West will think twice before intensifying any contacts with Russia.

Although Russia itself may still say that such recognition is also a kind of “victory” for them, in fact they will have to look for an opportunity to get rid of this status.

Yakubin sees only one way out for Russia – to change its policy, i.e. to stop the war and leave all Ukrainian territories.

Whether Russia will take such a step voluntarily is another question. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine “helps” the Russian troops in the de-occupation of Ukraine, the United States is unlikely to take this as a signal to lift the status of a state sponsor of terrorism from Russia.

In that case, we will have to wait either for the fall of the regime in Russia or for a change of mood in the United States.

– As was the case with Cuba, for example, when under Barack Obama’s presidency, the administration decided to restore relations. We can also recall Trump, who met with the DPRK leader. That is, a lot can depend on internal policy, – says Yakubin.

There is no doubt that sanctions will be imposed even without the recognition of Russia as a sponsor of terrorism. Without this, the gradual isolation of the aggressor country will also continue.

But such a step by the United States will be a signal to the entire world community, which has not yet seen or prefers not to notice the true face of the Russian regime: it is enough to deal with a terrorist.