Putin’s next step, nuclear weapons, and the near prospect: a prediction of the US intelligence on the war in Ukraine
U.S. intelligence believes that Russia’s war against Ukraine in the coming months is likely to become unpredictable and escalating.
This was reported by Director of the U.S. National Intelligence Avril Haines. She outlined a vague picture of the next stage of Putin’s invasion.
Thus, Haines emphasized that the next step of the Russian president will be difficult to predict because Putin faces a mismatch between his ambitions and Russia’s current conventional military capabilities. At the same time, she does not exclude further escalation at the front line.
In particular, Haines noted that the situation on the ground may increase the likelihood that President Putin will turn to more drastic means. They may include the imposition of martial law, the reorienting of industrial production, or the potential escalation of hostilities.
Haines also commented on the possible threat of Russia’s use of nuclear weapons. According to her, intelligence does not believe that Putin will use nuclear weapons if he does not feel the threat to Russia’s existence.
As about the offensive in eastern Ukraine, where Russia wants to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the U.S. intelligence director believes that Putin’s goals go far beyond the eastern region of Donbas.
The United States is not convinced that if even at the end of the fighting the occupiers will succeed, it will end this war.
Haines also explained what to expect from Russia’s actions in the near term. According to her, Putin wants to seize the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, take control over Kherson and potentially extend a land corridor to unrecognized Transnistria. But the U.S. intelligence believes that to reach Transnistria, Putin needs to launch a full mobilization inside Russia, which he has not done so far.
Haines also commented on the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. She noted that she did not see a viable way to conduct them, at least in the short term.
