Russia mobilizes over 500 thousand people for war against Ukraine – Bloomberg
Russian authorities have mobilized more than 500,000 people for a full-scale war against Ukraine.
Bloomberg writes about this with reference to its economic expert on Russia Alexander Isakov.
The publication points out that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s desire to expand his armed forces has exacerbated the lack of labor within the terrorist state, as the war against Ukraine is drawing hundreds of thousands of Russian workers from various sectors of the economy to the army.
According to Bloomberg Economics, data from the Russian Federal Statistics Service indicate a net increase in the number of armed forces last year by about 400,000 people amid already record low unemployment, after Putin ordered another 300,000 reservists to be drafted as part of the first wave of mobilization.
The total number of people called up for service has probably exceeded half a million, according to economist Alexander Isakov.
– This is due to the fact that the data does not take into account new recruitments to fill the gaps left by the dismissal of soldiers from the beginning of the invasion, and does not take into account recruitment to private military companies, such as the Wagner Group, the publication writes.
Bloomberg cites its sources as saying that the Kremlin is seeking to recruit another 400,000 contract soldiers to fight in the war against Ukraine this year as Putin prepares for a long fight. Putin has set a goal of increasing the size of the Russian Armed Forces to 1.5 million from 1.15 million, which could last until 2026.
– Hundreds of thousands of Russians of military age have also left the country since Putin announced mobilization in September 2022, exacerbating a demographic decline that could see the working-age population decline by 6.5% over the next decade, the newspaper writes.
In addition, the State Bank of Russia warned in December that “the possibilities for expanding production in the Russian economy are largely limited by labor market conditions.”
Earlier, Putin urged ministers to focus on increasing labor productivity during a meeting of the Russian government, warning that production in Russia remains weak and below last year’s level. The low unemployment rate “does not mean that all the problems in the labor market have been solved,” he said.
The Russian president acknowledged that “there are questions about the quality of jobs” and that “in some regions and localities the unemployment rate is still much higher than the national average.” At enterprises where production has declined, workers are not working at full capacity, he said.
About one-third of the sectors of the economy tracked by the statistical service showed a decline in employment last year, but conscription almost completely offset the negative impact on the overall number, Bloomberg writes. Moreover, conscription and recruitment of contract workers, exacerbated by the outflow of Russians from the country, has led to a reduction in the male labor pool and a shortage in many industries.
Whereas during the last three recessions in Russia, unemployment grew by an average of 2.4 percentage points, in 2022 it reached a minimum and continues to decline, Isakov said.
– There are three reasons for this. First, the sharp increase in public spending last year pushed most sectors to their capacity limits – notable growth in defense and construction are examples of public spending stimulus.
Second, employment losses in highly cyclical sectors, such as retail trade, were largely offset by employment gains in the military and public sector.
Third, the sharp decline in imports, especially in the early stages of the crisis, meant that domestic producers’ profit margins increased and incentives to retain staff remained in place,” said Alexander Isakov, Russia economist at Bloomberg.
Natalia Danina, head of research at Russian recruitment company HeadHunter, said the monthly increase in the number of vacancies exceeded the growth in the number of resumes she received in February for the first time in 12 months. Labor supply figures may be returning to the levels seen after the Covid-19 pandemic in Russia in 2021, “when the staff shortage was in full force,” she said.
