U.S. budget for Ukraine aid nearly exhausted, and finding new funds may be difficult – Politico

The $48 billion US aid package to Ukraine approved by Congress in December 2022 has approximately $6 billion left, meaning that US funding for arms and supplies could run out by mid-summer.

This assessment was made by the American publication Politico.

The amount of US financial reserves is “raising new concerns” among US lawmakers about the White House’s future plans, including when the administration will request another large aid package and whether it will be sufficient.

Many lawmakers believe that funding should continue uninterrupted, especially as Ukraine prepares to launch what is expected to be a large-scale counter-offensive to retake territory in the east from the Russians.

– It is essential that the administration provides Ukraine with everything it needs to defend and regain its sovereign territory in a timely manner… We expect the administration to not wait until the eleventh hour if the Ukrainians need more before the end of the fiscal year,” Senator Susan Collins told Pentagon leaders during a hearing on Thursday.

The White House is currently discussing a new aid package for Ukraine, and it will be aimed at keeping support flowing, a senior administration official told Politico, speaking on condition of anonymity to avoid being identified before an official announcement is made.

He added that it is unclear how Ukraine’s needs might change during or after a counteroffensive, but that the administration is “fully committed” to supporting Kyiv during and after the fight “for the long haul.”

Another complication, however, is that the members of the US Congress who approved the last large batch of funds are not in office today, and the circumstances are not the same.

– This time around, any late-summer White House proposal could face a heated debate over the debt ceiling and would almost certainly be opposed by a small but vocal group of Republicans who want to cut spending to help Ukraine, Politico writes.

The initial $48 billion package approved in December included about $36 billion for the Pentagon to provide a wide range of military assistance to Kyiv. The US has sent millions of artillery shells, financed tanks, and supplied the Ukrainian military with armoured vehicles and advanced air defence systems.

This aid has enabled the Ukrainian armed forces to repel Russian attacks and prepare for a future offensive “designed to break the stalemate that has been created by hundreds of kilometres of frontline.”

Outside of Thursday’s hearing, Collins said she was concerned about providing Ukraine with everything it needs for a future counteroffensive and the pace of US aid.

– It’s clear that this is going to happen. I expect that at some point we will need to supplement it. It’s also clear that it’s taking too long to get ammunition and tanks to the Ukrainians,” Collins said.

According to Politico, frustration with the pace of these deliveries is also evident on the Ukrainian side.

To support its claim, the publication cites President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as saying that the new armoured vehicles promised by the US are “coming in batches only”, contradicting the statement of General Christopher Cavoli of US European Command, who told Congress last month that Ukraine had received “more than 98 per cent” of the requested combat vehicles.

Collins and many other lawmakers Politico spoke to were unable to determine when military aid to Ukraine would end, or how large the next package might be.

The massive additional US aid has been used to steadily supply Ukraine with everything from Patriot air defence systems to spare parts for Humvees. The administration of US President Joe Biden has established a largely regular pace of several hundred million dollars every week to 10 days.

This month, the US announced $1.2 billion worth of drones, artillery, air defence systems, software and technical assistance to build Ukraine’s air defence network. All of these items will be delivered under contract to US defence companies and are intended to help Ukraine in the long term.

This package leaves $4 billion in the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which further depletes available funds.

Based on the pace of announcements, one congressional aide who follows this issue closely estimates that the money to replenish existing US stockpiles will run out in July. This means that the flow of equipment could be disrupted if Kyiv has to wait for a new tranche of funding for an extended period of time.

The Pentagon is evaluating how to spend the remaining money and continues to consider options “as the situation evolves to support battlefield successes during new offensive operations in the spring,” spokesman Lt. Col. Garron Garn said in a statement.

Senator Ben Cardin said that he was recently told during a briefing with administration officials that they will have enough funds for Ukraine for the next few months, so the appropriations process – or an emergency supplemental funding bill around that time – will likely be the next time Congress allocates additional funds.

– If I had to guess, it would probably be in September… The counteroffensive that will be launched in the next few days will have a big impact,” said House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul.

The publication emphasises the importance of the timing of the next round of votes on aid to Ukraine, especially “as lawmakers continue to tackle a host of other issues”.

– The US Congress will spend the next few months debating the fiscal year 2024 defence budget, which could complicate funding for Ukraine, even though lawmakers from both parties say they fully support maintaining the aid package, the newspaper writes.

Senator Lisa Murkowski, a senior appropriator, indicated that the appropriations process will likely be the next time Congress provides funding unless the situation on the ground changes significantly.

– I think you will see it in the allocations… It doesn’t make the front page or the back page. It’s kind of still there – we know it’s there – but not at a level that will make people really focus,” Murkowski told Politico.

Referring to those in her party who are sceptical about providing additional resources to Ukraine, Murkowski said that “it’s hard to say that what people say now will be what they will say (in the future – Ed.). I just think there are a lot of uncertainties.”

Senator Lindsey Graham, one of the biggest supporters of Ukraine in the US Congress, agreed that lawmakers will eventually have to allocate more funds and predicted that the annual process of funding the government will likely be the next best chance.

– “While there are dissenters, the majority of Republicans – certainly in the Senate and probably in the House – strongly believe that we need Ukraine to win, and that the outcome matters not only for this region, but for the United States and our national security interests,” he said.

Meanwhile, Mark Kansian, senior adviser at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said he expects the White House to offer several small aid packages to Ukraine to see it through to the end of the year.

The first package is likely to be enough to last until the end of the current fiscal year, which ends on 30 September, followed by another package to address the backlog of defence funding legislation, which has been postponed in recent years to the end of the year or early next year.

Once the budget is passed, another funding package could be included in this annual bill, as “at that point they will want to buy some time to see how the war is going and how the counteroffensive is going,” Kansian said.

By that time, Ukraine will be planning its military strategy for 2024, the newspaper believes.

But more money is not guaranteed, especially in the current political climate in Washington, Politico writes.

Senator Marco Rubio, vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said it would be a “mistake” for the Biden administration to expect additional funding for Ukraine.

– It looks like they’re expecting some kind of supplement at some point – they’re going to come back and ask for more money. I think that’s a mistake. I think it should be in their base budget,” Rubio said.