Threat from Belarus: is Lukashenko ready to invade Ukraine?
Recently, the self-proclaimed dictator of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has threatened Ukraine again, and experts name new possible dates of invasion from the territory of the neighboring state. So how serious are the threats, and are Ukrainian defenders ready for an invasion?
Now the Belarusian army has 45,000 soldiers, of which approximately 20,000 are combat-ready, of which several thousand are paratroopers and local special operations forces. But the exact number of Russian troops is unknown. Lukashenko previously called the figure of 9 thousand, while Ukrainian intelligence – 20,000.
However, according to experts, this is not enough to repeat the invasion of February 24.
– Today we cannot say that a strike group is being created that can perform combat missions to invade Ukraine, – says military expert Oleksandr Musienko.
Firstly, Russia lacks modern equipment and is forced to mothball even old tanks of the Khrushchev period. Secondly, the Belarusian army is unlikely to be able to help it in any way.
However, not everything is so clear. Expert Sergei Grabsky believes that there are still opportunities to create a strike group of forces in Belarus. But definitely not before December 15.
– This is a post-Soviet army, equipped with post-Soviet or Soviet types of weapons and equipment, has never fought, has not even participated in peacekeeping operations. Work is constantly being carried out on the territory of Belarus to prepare for the deployment of additional forces and means, so the grouping in Belarus can be built up both quickly and significantly, – he said.
“It is an analogue of the Russian so-called mobilization, but only at the initial stage.
– There is information that now the individual data of each recruit is being clarified, Belarusians are summoned to military commissariats, military bureaus, etc. How will it end? Logically, it should end with a call for military training, and then – preparation for combat operations. But so far we do not see it, – Grabsky said.
But the issue is not only that the enemy lacks people and equipment, which is now being sent to support the front in Donbas. Oleksandr Musiyenko says that Ukrainian defenders have been equipping the border all summer and now, unlike February 24, they are ready for any surprises from the northern neighbor.
– “Volyn, Polissya, Rivne region are characterized by the fact that there are known ways that heavy equipment can move, especially in winter, and it will be difficult to do it by other ways. And knowing the ways, you can set traps to stop the advance of these columns. As soon as they stop, mobile groups of military will start destroying them,” the expert said.
Also, Ukrainian defenders have already destroyed all possible ways of communication through which the equipment can try to enter.
– The 72nd brigade blew up bridges on the approaches. Now it is done preventively. They are mined, there are mined areas there, all railway crossings, everything,” noted Musiyenko.
The wall on the border
In addition, Ukraine is building a large concrete wall on the border with Belarus in Volyn region, just like Poland did in its time.
Poland built such a wall because of the invasion of migrants, with which Belarus blackmailed and provoked the EU. But will it help against heavy equipment?
In front of the concrete wall, an anti-tank ditch is being built, mines are being laid, and anti-personnel barriers are being put up. On the other side of the wall there is a road where reinforcements can arrive. Nearby there are cameras that quickly identify the appearance of enemy forces.
It is important for delaying the advance, in addition, it is easier to detect the DRG units, – said Musiyenko.
“So it will be harder to just get across the border, at least through the land border. And in the depths of the country, Ukrainian troops will be waiting for Belarusians. So will the Belarusian side dare to invade? It was expected several times during the year. And it did not happen despite all the desires of Russia.
Dancing with Putin
Russia is trying its best to drag Belarus into a war with Ukraine, but Lukashenko is afraid of an invasion, so he tries to support Putin in words, but does not actively engage in hostilities.
Belarusian opposition journalist Tatiana Martynova believes that the main problem for Lukashenko is a dilemma. Because he needs to please Putin, who finances the Belarusian economy, and not to quarrel with his security forces, who do not want to fight.
– There was a moment when these assault groups lined up on the borders with Ukraine in March, only then there was sabotage, because no one wants to die! The power bloc itself does not want to fight, – she says.
Therefore, Lukashenko, the journalist believes, will continue to make loud statements to appease Putin, while not wanting to cross the line beyond which there are risks for his regime.
– This process can last for a long time. Vova, the troops are not ready, we are still learning. We do not have combat experience yet, you have it. We don’t have enough equipment, we don’t have enough money, and let you take the equipment, and let’s take ammunition… It’s a very complicated tango, – the journalist believes.
But military experts have a different opinion. The problem is that no one knows how much Lukashenko controls the situation inside the country, including his army. Because Belarusian officials have already stated that there will be no war with Ukraine.
– We could talk about Belarus entering the war if Belarus was an independent state. But we must realize that it is occupied by the Kremlin regime, so it is impossible to say when the Belarusian corps of the Russian army will enter the battle. It depends on the decision of the Kremlin leadership,” Grabowski said.
