Disintegration, failure, nuclear aggression: what awaits the Russian Federation in the next 10 years, according to the forecast of experts
In the next 10 years, Russia may face disintegration, transformation into an unsustainable state, or the use of nuclear weapons, which will again lead to its disintegration. This forecast was expressed by 167 experts based on the results of the Atlantic Council survey.
It is noted that almost half of the experts (46%) believe that by 2033, the Russian Federation may become a state that did not exist – that is, one that cannot maintain its existence as a viable political and economic unit. Another possible option is that it will simply fall apart.
Meanwhile, 21% of the surveyed experts believe that the Russian Federation is the most likely state to become insolvent in the next 10 years.
Also, 40% of experts predict Russia’s internal disintegration by 2033. Possible reasons for this are revolution, civil war, political disintegration, and so on.
Europeans (49%) provided the most pessimistic forecasts, among specialists from the USA such 36%.
Another 14% of respondents believe that the Russian Federation is capable of using nuclear weapons within the next 10 years.
Among those who predict the collapse of the Russian Federation or its transformation into a state that did not happen, 22% believe that one of the reasons for this will be the use of nuclear weapons.
Meanwhile, 10% of those predicting Russia’s collapse think that of all currently autocratic countries, it is the most likely to become democratic by the end of this period.
Commenting on the results of the survey, Peter Engelke, deputy head of the Atlantic Council and one of the curators of the study, told the Financial Times that one of the most important reasons for the future collapse of the Russian Federation was the war against Ukraine.
He sees a high probability that the war “will boomerang not only on the leadership of the Russian Federation, but also on the country in general.”
