The Russian Federation will not be able to attack Sloviansk and Kostiantynivka after Bakhmut – ISW
The Russian military will not be able to launch an offensive to the north in the direction of Sloviansk or to the west in the direction of Kostiantynivka, even if Bakhmut is captured, which was announced by the owner of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin on May 20.
This opinion was expressed by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). They note that neither the Wagnerites nor the Russian regular troops are capable of launching an offensive after months of grueling urban battles for the city, as well as due to counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Bakhmut district.
– Russian regular troops, located on the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut, are also unlikely to advance west towards Kostyantynivka or north towards Slovіansk in the near future against the backdrop of Ukrainian counterattacks in the Bakhmut district, – ISW says.
Analysts note that the invaders most likely hold the western administrative borders of Bakhmut, while the Ukrainian military controls a small area of the southwestern part of Bakhmut around the T0504 highway.
ISW notes that the “Wagnerians” were able to focus on urban battles in Bakhmut at the expense of the regular army of the Russian Federation, which took over the defense of the flanks. At the moment, both military forces of the Russian Federation are exhausted, the first signs of “fatigue” of the PMС have been showing since the end of December 2022.
In the event of a real withdrawal of mercenaries from Bakhmut on May 25, as Prigozhin previously announced, noting that the city will be held by regular troops, the Russian army will be even less capable of offensive operations.
– It is still unclear whether Prigozhin will really withdraw his forces from Bakhmut, but some military leaders assume that at the end of the month Prigozhin will transfer Wagner to another “critical” front, – the analysts specified.
Photo: 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade Kholodny Yar