Ukrainian Armed Forces’ counter-offensive in the South: what could lead to the collapse of the frontline and de-occupation
Ukrainian special forces have landed near the village of Kozachi Lageri and are moving towards the village of Chelburda, which threatens the encirclement of the Russian army forces. This information has recently appeared in the information space.
The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine has not confirmed this information. However, Fakty Nedeli experts believe that such a raid, if it did take place, would be useful during the liberation of the entire Zaporizhzhia region.
– This is an opportunity to actually get into the rear of the group, which is involved in defensive measures where the Ukrainian counter-offensive is underway. These are the Melitopol and Berdiansk directions. It’s a rear attack,” said Oleksandr Musienko, head of the Centre for Military Legal Studies.
At the same time, Russian troops have undermined their own defence capabilities after the explosion of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, says military expert Oleksiy Hetman.
– “The lines they built, the fortifications, they harmed themselves when they blew up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station. The lines are partially destroyed,” the analyst said.
“Minefields have been moved, some mines are no longer usable, they will not explode.
– “We are doing something similar, conducting a counter-offensive operation in the Bakhmut area with the same task: to destroy the maximum number or hold the enemy units in those areas of the front to make it impossible to transfer them to other parts of the front,” said military expert Sergey Grabskyi.
“And this tactic is already yielding results, making it easier for the units operating in the Zaporizhzhya sector.
– “After the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station was blown up, they withdrew their troops and then returned some of them. Now they have returned a unit to the left bank of the Kherson region because they understand the negative consequences of losing their flanks,” Musiyenko said.
According to official reports of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, the counter-offensive operation continues at the Melitopol and Berdiansk directions. Here, the Ukrainian Defence Forces have been successful in the areas of Urozhayne, Pryiutne and Verbove villages, where they are consolidating the lines they have reached.
– We are talking about the gradual destruction of the enemy’s defence line, creating the preconditions for a further breakthrough of the defence, and access to the operational space. I would say that the Deputy Minister’s words are cautiously optimistic. Very cautious,” Grabsky says.
Fakty Nedeli experts remind that the Kherson offensive has been going on for six months. Therefore, it is at least too early to expect dramatic results in Zaporizhzhia region.
In recent weeks, the German Taurus cruise missile with a range of 300 to 500 km has been mentioned more and more often. There are reports that the parliamentary factions of the Bundestag have allegedly reached a consensus on the supply of this weapon.
– This will help us in the complex, will enable us to defeat the enemy, push him back, squeeze him out of our land. As for the missile itself, it remains to be seen how many of them we can get. Germany has 600 of these missiles in total, and we can count on 10%, i.e. 50 missiles. It’s a lot, but it’s not hundreds of missiles that will destroy everything there,” Hetman says.
However, Grabskyi notes that without the physical presence of Ukrainian units on the Crimean isthmus, it would be wrong to say that it will be possible to cut off the logistics.
– But we can seriously reduce the volume of supplies to levels that will not meet the real needs of even a defensive operation of the Russian Federation, which could actually lead to the collapse of the front.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces will continue to destroy all logistics hubs and cut off all enemy supply routes. Success in war is not measured by square kilometres, but by the enemy’s destroyed ability to attack or defend.
