Ukrainian Armed Forces counter-offensive could lead to success in 2023 – ISW
Ukraine’s defence forces are successfully depleting the forces of the Russian occupiers during the counter-offensive in the south of the country and may achieve significant success by the end of 2023. At the same time, Russia’s subsequent defensive positions continue to pose problems for the advance of the Armed Forces.
This is stated in a new report by analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Ukrainian Armed Forces’ successes in the Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhia sectors
Geo-located footage from 7 September shows that Ukrainian fighters have advanced further northwest of Verbove (18km southwest of Orikhiv) in western Zaporizhzhia region.
– A prominent Russian military commander said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had made further advances in the area, while other bloggers claimed that on 6 September, Ukrainian forces temporarily advanced to the northwestern outskirts of Verbove, which probably indicates a further recent offensive by our military northwest of the settlement,” the publication said.
Satellite imagery taken on 6 September shows leaves on fire about a kilometre northwest of Verbove, suggesting that Russian troops are firing at Ukrainian forces advancing in the area.
Also, geo-referenced footage published on 7 September shows that the Defence Forces have made minor gains northwest of Klishchiyivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces confirmed that the Ukrainian military had made gains south of Bakhmut and in the area of Robotyne and Verbove in western Zaporizhzhia region.
Forecasts by US military intelligence and a Ukrainian expert
Trent Moll, Director of Analysis at the US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA), said in an interview with The Economist on 6 September that there is a “real possibility” that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will break through all Russian defences in southern Ukraine by the end of 2023. The Ukrainian source suggested that the occupiers’ future defensive positions are weaker than those that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have broken through before.
On 4 September, the former commander of the Ukrainian Aidar battalion, Yevhen Dykyi, said that there are already battles on these Russian defensive positions, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not yet broken through them. He also noted that the minefields in front of the next Russian defensive line are not continuous, which is in line with previous statements by the Ukrainian side that the Ukrainian army had already advanced through the densest minefields.
Dykyi also claimed that Russia’s third defensive line in southern Ukraine consists mainly of command posts, communication points and warehouses and acts mainly as a line of support for Russian defensive positions further north.
He argued that Russian troops would not be able to deter an offensive by the Ukrainian army on the third line of enemy defences, meaning that a final breakthrough of the current Russian defence line would be crucial in operational terms.
At the same time, US military intelligence believes that the bulk of Russian reinforcements are deployed on the third defensive echelon, which contradicts Dykyi’s assumption that these positions are only auxiliary, the report says.
Ukrainian offensive could lead to success by the end of the year
The Institute for the Study of War notes that the next series of Russian defensive positions may be weaker, less mined and less manned than the defensive line that Ukrainian troops broke through.
– However, Russian defences are not homogeneous along the entire front in southern Ukraine, and estimates of the strength of the next Russian defensive positions may be an extrapolation based on limited information from small sections of the front,” the publication says.
The ISW adds that the Ukrainian military is making tactical gains and successfully depleting the Russian defending forces, and analysts continue to assess that the Ukrainian counter-offensive “could lead to operational success in 2023, but the next lines of Russian defensive positions continue to pose serious challenges to Ukrainian forces and may be firmly held in some areas.”
Key conclusions of ISW:
- On the night of 6-7 September, Russian troops staged another large-scale attack with Shahed-136/131 drones in the Sumy and Odesa regions of Ukraine.
- Authorities in Moscow region detained the commander of the 1st Special Purpose Air and Missile Defence Army on charges of bribery and corruption amid ongoing and intensifying drone attacks on Moscow.
- Russian troops continued their offensive on the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in the Bakhmut sector, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, and near the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, but there were no confirmed advances on 7 September.
Ukrainian Armed Forces break through the first line of defence of the occupiers
This summer, the Ukrainian Armed Forces intensified their offensive in Zaporizhzhia region. Fighting is taking place, in particular, at the Melitopol and Berdiansk directions. According to some media, our defenders managed to break through the first line of defence of the Russian occupiers.
The commander of the Tavria Operational and Strategic Grouping, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, reported that the Russian invaders spent 60% of their time and resources on the construction of the first line of defence and only 20% each on the second and third lines.
