We have carte blanche during October: what to expect from the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ advance towards Tokmak
Ukrainian troops are engaged in daily clashes with the enemy on the southern frontline. At the same time, the Russians are trying to hold on to the fortification lines built when the Ukrainian military did not have enough equipment to advance.
The breakthrough of the first line of Russian defense in the occupied territories was also confirmed earlier by General Oleksandr Tarnavsky, but the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ ability to advance is diminishing the closer the weather conditions get to advancing equipment.
Will the bad weather really stop the movement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the South, what positions would be better for Ukraine to hold and how quickly will the Ukrainian military be able to reach Tokmak, which is an important logistics point in the Zaporizhzhya direction – ICTV Fakty asked military analysts and experts about all this.
Thus, Oleksandr Kovalenko, military and political observer of the Information Resistance group and expert at the Ukrainian Center for Security Studies, said in a commentary to ICTV Fakty that the question of where exactly the Ukrainian army will meet weather conditions in this area is important today.
– Now we still have a certain carte blanche in terms of weather conditions. During this period, let’s say in October, we can reach those locations and frontiers that will not be critical at the beginning of the deterioration of weather conditions,” he said.
Kovalenko adds that the advance of Ukrainian troops through the defense lines depends on logistical solutions. For example, if the Defense Forces reach the section of the road that passes through Solodka Balka (to do so, they will have to advance from Robotyno through Novoprokopivka and Ilchenkove), then the movement of Ukrainian troops towards Tokmak will be much faster.
The situation is similar with the road to Tokmak that passes through the village of Ocherevatne, which is south of the front line in this direction.
– Then there will be a more accelerated advance, but there are defensive lines near Tokmak itself. The Russians have made two defensive lines there. They will have to break through them somehow. I don’t think there will be a breakthrough and assault operations. I think that when we reach Tokmak, we will surround it, not storm it directly,” he added.
At the same time, Kovalenko commented on the ideas of Western analysts regarding the advancement of Ukrainian troops, who believe that it is more expedient for the Defense Forces to expand the existing foothold that has already been de-occupied. According to Kovalenko, this will only give the Russians time to strengthen the defense lines running north.
– “In the areas where we can carry out expansion actions, we can encircle (Russian forces – Ed.) based on the existing (de-occupied – Ed.) logistics. Then most of the Russian units will be forced to either be surrounded or they will be forced to flee and demonstrate “gestures of goodwill,” he said.
At the same time, military expert Oleh Starikov said in a commentary to ICTV Fakty that the advance of Ukrainian troops to Tokmak “will not be a cakewalk, and it will be bloody battles.
– “Everything related to Robotyn, Novoprokopivka and Tokmak is very seriously fortified,” he said.
According to him, the Russians are massively using FPV drones there, so it is risky to use equipment in this area.
At the same time, the expert believes that while armored vehicles such as Stryker can still travel without being hit by enemy drones before the rains come, this may be complicated by the occupiers’ more frequent attacks when the road is impassable.
Starikov points out that, compared to Bakhmut, Robotyne has completely different conditions for infantry operations. For example, while in Bakhmut you can hide from artillery or drones in the basements of destroyed private houses, on the way to Novoprokopivka, there is an open field, which makes it an easy target for any forces to advance.
The expert added that it will be easier for Ukrainian forces to move in the area of Verbove, as the Russians have fewer fortifications there.
