Russia is not going to give up its goal of capturing Ukraine and is preparing for a long war. Therefore, after the 2024 presidential election, Russia may announce a large-scale mobilization.
This was stated by Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, during a speech at the Halifax International Security Forum.
He noted that Russia’s strategic goals are fundamentally opposed to Ukraine’s. The aggressor wants to destroy Ukraine as a state and absorb the Ukrainian ethnos within the “Russian world”.
– The Kremlin is not going to give up on this goal, it is preparing for a long war… The country’s economy is increasingly moving to a military mode. Total mobilization is possible after the presidential elections in 2024,” Danilov emphasized.
The RNBO Secretary emphasized that Russia has been able to adapt to the war and is constantly investing in the defense sector. In addition, Russia has proved to be more resilient to Western sanctions than expected.
Oleksiy Danilov added that the next presidential elections in Russia on March 17, 2024, will be a “landmark date” for the Kremlin. After the re-election, the “enthronement” of dictator Vladimir Putin, the regime will be “cemented”. His hands will “essentially be tied.”
– Therefore, Ukraine and the international community have 3-4 months to make appropriate preparations,” the RNBO Secretary warned.
Danilov called for increased military-technical, financial and economic assistance to Ukraine from the allies. At the same time, the assistance should not be metered, limited or untimely.
The expert added that the goal should be the de-occupation of the entire territory of Ukraine within the 1991 borders and prevention of future aggression.
He noted that there is no need to persuade Ukraine to negotiate with Russia. Instead, the democratic world should give the aggressor a “tough response”, as Russia understands only the language of force.
Disintegration of the Russian Federation as a way to prevent aggression
The Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council expressed the opinion that the most effective way to stop the aggressor would be to break Russia into several parts.
– The real future of the Russian Federation is vague. But in its current imperial form, it will pose a threat to its neighbors, Europe, and the world order. We believe that the most effective way to prevent repeated aggression is to decompose Russia into several parts in a controlled manner,” he said.
Oleksiy Danilov explained that this would automatically lead to “the dismantling of the Putin regime, the desovereignization of the Russian Federation,” its demilitarization and denuclearization.
According to him, the international community should already be looking for answers to complex questions. For example, how to minimize nuclear risks and prevent the proliferation of biological, chemical and other weapons of mass destruction after Russia’s fragmentation.
Also, what to do with the flow of refugees from the Russian Federation and how to interact with new territorial entities “on the territory of Russia.”
– Answers to these questions and solutions should be found through joint efforts in the near future… If there are no changes in the West’s attitude to Russia, changes in Russia itself, then in 15-20 years the world will see a new “axis of evil”, which will include not only the DPRK, China, Iran and Russia, but also some European countries,” Danilov is convinced.
Mobilization in Russia: what is known
Ukrainian intelligence stated that the process of mobilization in the Russian Federation has not stopped and has been going on for over a year. It takes place covertly to replenish losses in Ukraine.
The aggressor officially announced the so-called partial mobilization in the fall of 2022. About 300 thousand people were drafted into the army then, but the real numbers may be higher.
British intelligence has noted that the Kremlin is unlikely to hold another wave of mobilization before the presidential election in Russia.
According to Western officials, Russia has already lost 300 to 400 thousand killed and wounded in the war against Ukraine.