Fuel shortage in Ukraine: the expert predicted gasoline prices in May 2022
Problems with fuel shortage have started in Ukraine. The government informed that there would be no shortage, but prices wold rise. In a week they plan to settle the situation with fuel because of the oil depots and oil refineries bombed by Russian troops. The trade surcharge on petroleum products was increased by 40%. The maximum price per liter of diesel fuel is UAH 40.66, and for gasoline – UAH 36.05.
Serhiy Kuyun, an expert on the oil products market, spoke about Ukraine’s prospects and how quickly the state will be able to get out of the fuel famine.
– The problem is quite deep. I think that during May we will have to live in a rather economical mode. I hope that the main problems will be solved during this time. Why is there a shortage? First, because of the war and the attack on the Kremenchuh plant. So far, we can not close the consumption of imports from Europe. The problem is not even with us, but with the fact that Europe does not have the appropriate transport capacity to bring fuel quickly. Ukrainian companies bought very large volumes in April, but they cannot deliver them to Ukraine because of the lack of tank cars, locomotives and so on. Now the government will try to solve this problem, – Serhiy Kuyun told.
According to the expert on the market of oil products, now all the fuel is directly at gas stations, because there is a shortage in Ukraine.
– When we talk about the shortage, it means that it is not necessary to store this fuel. Everything goes directly to the gas stations. The issue of fuel storage is not yet on time. There are more than two dozen destroyed oil depots in Ukraine, but the market has gone on wheels due to security and logistics, when there is no storage at all. It is safer because there are no large fuel reserves. This is the dispersion of fuel at gas stations, because it allows you to deliver more quickly – said the expert in the market of petroleum products.
According to him, the bombed oil depots and refineries will not be restored while the war in Ukraine continues.
– This is not a quick process. The main thing is that this danger has not disappeared. We see rockets flying. That’s why no one will do it while the war is going on, – Serhiy Kuyun thinks.
Serhiy Kuyun suggested that the price of gasoline would increase to UAH 40 per liter, and diesel fuel would cost about UAH 40-43 per liter. According to him, the cost of fuel may fluctuate, but it is unlikely that global prices will rise.
– Let me remind you that we now have state regulation, so the surge in prices is impossible. Long-term forecasts are difficult to make because we depend on oil prices. They are now very unpredictable, there are such price jumps, the nature of which is unclear. For example, over the past four days, the price of oil and petroleum products has risen by 10%, although before that it fell by 10%. As for the short term, next week the government will publish new estimated prices. Taking into account the dynamics of world prices, as well as the calculation formula changed by the government – the price will increase by an average of UAH 3, maybe a little more. That is, gasoline will be close to 40 UAH per liter, and diesel approximately 40-43 UAH per liter. Nobody predicts a global rise in prices, but possible fluctuations can not be ruled out, – the expert believes.
