Putin hasn’t changed his plans: experts tell when a new Russian offensive against Ukraine could begin and which areas are under threat
The full-scale war in Ukraine has been going on for 11 months. Ukraine’s armed forces and people are proving to Putin every day that he is a political and strategic failure with paranoid ambitions who, by and large, has not gained anything in Ukraine, but is only losing.
But despite the enormous losses in manpower and weapons, the Russian dictator is not even thinking about peace, but rather preparing for a new offensive.
Fakty ICTV analyzed when Russia might launch a new offensive against Ukraine and which cities might be under threat.
Putin wanted to capture Kyiv in three days – he failed. He periodically hits the capital and other cities with missiles and “shaheds”, hoping to intimidate Ukrainians into demanding that the authorities make concessions to Putin. However, the opposite is true – people are even more convinced that the Russian enemy must be destroyed.
It is worth noting that it would be more difficult for us to defend our freedom and sovereignty without the help of the West – modern air defense systems, tons of ammunition and other weapons allow us not only to fight back, but also to launch counterattacks and regain our territories.
The war in Ukraine has now entered its 342nd day. The Russian dictator is probably hoping to seize the initiative and is preparing a new major offensive. Western analysts predict that it could be as early as February or March 2023.
What is being said about a possible new offensive in the West and in Ukraine?
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that there are no signs that Vladimir Putin has changed his goals for the war, on the contrary, active preparations for a new offensive are underway.
According to him, no one can predict when the war will end.
– But what we know for sure is that this aggressive war was provoked by Putin. He is the one who decided to invade another country, a sovereign democratic state in Europe, and he is the one who can put an end to the war today. But we see no signs that he and the authorities in Moscow are preparing for peace,” Stoltenberg emphasized.
The commander of the Lithuanian Armed Forces, Lieutenant General Valdemaras Rupšys, believes that only a large number of weapons and armaments can influence the Kremlin’s decision to launch a new offensive against Ukraine.
The war has now moved to a phase where everything is focused on logistics and material support.
– Now even a blind person can see that they (the Russians – Ed.) are preparing for a new wave of offensive. And they can only stop or change their plans if they see that Ukraine has sufficient equipment, ammunition, weapons, and trained personnel.
Ukrainian and British intelligence agencies have repeatedly emphasized that Russia may be preparing for another wave of mobilization, which indicates that it is preparing for a new offensive against Ukraine.
National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov also says that Russia is currently preparing about 150,000 soldiers to launch a new offensive. In his opinion, Putin is preparing for February 24, because Russians need to report on something by the anniversary of the war.
In Russia, they like to be tied to dates.
– It’s no secret that they are preparing for a new wave by February 24, as they say,” the NSDC Secretary noted.
According to Danilov, we still need to understand that our troops are no longer equipped the same way they were in February 2022.
Former Polish Army Commander Waldemar Skrzyczak said that Russia is amassing troops in the areas of Bryansk, Kursk, and Voronezh, and that is why the offensive could begin from there. And this probability is quite high.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly spoken about a possible Russian offensive.
Russia’s losses in the war
According to reports from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian army has suffered significant losses in manpower in recent weeks. Thus, between January 18 and January 31, the Armed Forces of Ukraine eliminated at least 10,550 invaders.
Currently, the approximate number of eliminated enemies is 127,500:
- January 31 – 850
- January 30 – 490
- January 29 – 650
- January 28 – 800
- January 27 – 850
- January 26 – 780
- January 25 – 910
- January 24 – 690
- January 23 – 720
- January 22 – 600
- January 21 – 860
- January 20 – 770
- January 19 – 760
- January 18 – 820
In terms of weapons, the Russian army has had a minus since the beginning of the war: 3201 tanks, 6378 armored personnel carriers, 2197 artillery systems, 454 MLRS, 221 air defense systems, 293 aircraft, 284 helicopters, 1951 UAVs, 796 cruise missiles, 18 ships and boats, and 5248 other special equipment.
Preparations for the invasion continue
In a commentary to Fakty ICTV, military expert Oleksandr Musienko emphasized that the Russians are actively preparing for a new offensive, and mobilization is underway in the country. In addition, Putin is putting Russia’s economy on a war footing. Preparations are underway to intensify hostilities in the east, north and southeast – these are Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
– Enemy activity may increase in the spring, when armored vehicles, including tanks and armored personnel carriers, can be used. At the moment it is difficult to predict any date of the offensive – it could be the end of February, March or early April,” emphasized Musiyenko.
As for the ammunition stocks, despite the heavy artillery shelling in 2022, which the occupiers used to cover Ukrainian land, Russia still has stocks – much less, but they are still there. In addition, the country has begun to produce shells.
Now Russia is actively looking for ammunition in Belarus. Perhaps the shells are also coming from North Korea, as the United States and NATO claim. Russia is also partly trying to find help in Iran.
Where can the occupiers go in a new offensive?
When asked where the occupiers might try to go, Musienko said that it is unlikely that it will be large cities such as Kharkiv or Zaporizhzhia, although these are frontline cities.
– It is too early to talk about a possible enemy offensive on large cities. Although he does not abandon such plans,” emphasized Musiyenko.
“Speaking about the north-eastern direction, the invaders’ task is to throw back our forces and stop our attack on Kreminna. The occupants want to regain full control over Luhansk region.
The enemy will also try to enter our rear from the north – in the area of Kupiansk, Kharkiv region – and advance to Lyman, Donetsk region.
The enemy may also move to the Kramatorsk-Kostiantynivka area to try to capture the entire Donetsk region. The Russians are also targeting the south, which could also help them capture the Donetsk region and prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces from preparing a counteroffensive.
– If the enemy manages to succeed in these areas and expand its foothold, then the invaders will be able to try to move to Zaporizhzhya region,” summarized military expert Oleksandr Musienko.
Donetsk region is the main direction for the offensive
Oleksandr Kovalenko, military and political observer of the Information Resistance group, believes that it will not be easy for Russia to launch a new large-scale offensive against Ukraine, as it does not have enough resources to do so.
In a commentary to ICTV Fakty, Oleksandr Kovalenko noted that the enemy could now attack Donetsk region. The Russians cannot go to Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, or the left bank of Kherson region. An attack from Belarus is equally unlikely.
– If we are talking about an offensive on Chernihiv, Sumy or Kharkiv, these regions have reinforced defense lines along the state border,” said Oleksandr Kovalenko.
“In order to launch an offensive against these regions, the Russians must have 30 to 40 armored personnel carriers for each of the regions, which is approximately 30-35 thousand people. So, Putin has to concentrate 90-120 thousand soldiers near these regions. And these are just the units for the offensive. He also needs medics, technical and logistics units.
– That is, this is a significant accumulation of troops that we saw from October 2021 to February 2022. But this is not happening now. So, we cannot talk about an offensive in these areas. Therefore, the only direction is Donetsk region, namely, the direction of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Vuhledar, etc.” the military expert emphasized.
The day before, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Russia was preparing 200,000 troops for the offensive. And Oleksandr Kovalenko emphasizes that such a number “cannot be hidden in a pocket.”
– “If they (the Russians – Ed.) do have those 200,000, which I doubt very much, it will take them two months to transport them to the border with Ukraine. What kind of February 24 can we talk about? And that’s not to mention coordination, provision of troops, and minimal basic training,” said Kovalenko.
The military-political observer also emphasizes the record losses of Russians in January 2023 – more than 20 thousand personnel. We also don’t know how many wounded and captured occupants there were in January – it could be 30 or 40 thousand.
– So, in fact, 50 to 60 thousand are the January losses of the Russian occupiers. That is, they will no longer participate in hostilities… And recruiting new 200 thousand is not so easy, and you cannot hide it,” emphasized Oleksandr Kovalenko.
According to NSDC Secretary Oleksiy Danilov, the new Russian offensive is a challenge for Ukraine, but Ukrainians will undoubtedly withstand it. A year ago, we were face to face with the aggressor, and today the situation is completely different – Ukraine receives powerful assistance from all over the world.
He noted that we should understand the challenges we face, and the Armed Forces are preparing for them, but we should also believe in our victory.
