Missiles vs energy: do Russians have new weapons to strike Ukraine
As winter approaches, Ukrainians are warned that Russia will certainly cause us trouble by massively attacking critical infrastructure, as it did last year. And intelligence reports say that the occupiers are amassing missiles.
Since the summer, the enemy has been conducting aerial reconnaissance of our energy facilities. Since September, missile attacks have significantly decreased, mostly Russians are launching Shahed-131/136 drones.
Although last fall and winter Russian terrorists failed to “put down” our energy sector, Ukrainians were left without electricity for four to six and sometimes eight hours. This heating season, the Russians will surely try to be more thoughtful in their approach to new attacks. But there is one big thing – we have modern Western missile defense systems to protect us, such as: SAMP/T, Patriot, IRIS-T, NASAMS, Crotale, etc. That is, we have what it takes to shoot down Russian missiles and drones.
Fakty ICTV asked aviation expert, leading researcher at the State Aviation Museum of the National Aviation University, PhD in History Valeriy Romanenko about Russia’s prospects for creating a new long-range cruise missile and the level of missile threats in winter.
New Russian missile – what is known
The Russian media, citing sources, have reported on the alleged creation of a new long-range cruise missile that will equip a modern 5th generation Su-57 fighter jet.
Allegedly, Russian engineers were able to reduce the size of the missile by using a new design of a folding wing and internal layout, as well as a new small-sized twin-circuit turbojet engine. The name of the missile or any of its characteristics have not been disclosed by the Russian media.
According to Valeriy Romanenko, even if the Russians did develop such a missile, it would not change the situation dramatically.
– I don’t think there will be anything new. The Russians may try to increase the range of the X-31 and X-59 missiles,” the aviation expert said.
If the missile is placed in the fuselage, it will give the enemy aircraft an advantage to fly into the controlled territory of Ukraine and launch. This will reduce the cost of a strike. After all, long-range missiles cost from $1-3 million, for example, Kalibr, X-101, and up to $10 million, like Kinzhals.
As for the “new” missile, another Russian source claims that Su-34 bombers have been given the opportunity to use it. And allegedly, these missiles have already been launched.
According to aviation expert Valeriy Romanenko, the bad thing is that the newest missile is long-range and that it was “bolted on” to the Su-34. This will really prevent timely warning of missile strikes.
But if the missile is small and long-range, it will have a relatively small warhead, which is good news. And another thing is that the Russians don’t mention supersonic, which means it’s subsonic, so it’s an easy target for our missile defense systems.
How many of the latest Su-57 fighters do Russians have
As for the newest Su-57 fighters, as of the beginning of 2023, the Russians had only 9 of them. Later, they produced 10, but the first plane crashed during testing.
According to Valeriy Romanenko, Russia has a project for Su-75 fighters, which they wanted to make together with India. However, the Indians refused even the Su-57 because the aircraft’s electronic equipment and stealth technology do not correspond to the 5th generation.
By the way, the General Staff of Ukraine has not yet reported the destruction of at least one Su-57 on the territory of Ukraine, because they simply did not fly over here. But the Russian Defense Ministry claimed that the Su-57 was in our airspace.
Iranian missiles and drones for Russia
So far, there is no confirmed evidence that the Iranians have handed over any missiles to the Russians, although Iran has a lot of such weapons with different warheads and different ranges.
In early October, the Russian invaders claimed that they had used Iranian 122 mm rockets against Ukraine. These missiles for the BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher system were developed by DIO. Arash-1 munitions have a range of 21.5 km and a velocity of 710 m/s. They have a high-explosive warhead.
As for the supply of Shahed-131/136 kamikaze drones, Tehran has fulfilled all previously concluded contracts and has not yet supplied such drones. Although Russia has already launched the production of Shaheds on its territory.
Are lawnmower drones dangerous
According to aviation expert Valeriy Romanenko, these drones are assembled in Izhevsk, Russia. For example, the “lawn mowers” (so named because of the specific sound of the engine) are equipped with a Chinese 7 hp cylinder model aircraft engine.
The expert emphasized that this company used to manufacture Lancet drones with Czech engines, but the Czech Republic stopped supplying them, and there is nowhere else to buy them. So the Russians, having the capacity, decided to make drones with piston engines. And where they can get a lot of engines is, of course, China.
Currently, both Italmas drones and lawn mowers are assembled in Izhevsk, although both are not mass-produced.
Therefore, the “lawnmowers” have very primitive characteristics: a speed of about 100 km/h (Shahed’s is over 220 km/h), which means they can easily be shot down by mobile fire groups; poor aerodynamics – such drones are not able to fly far into the territory.
– If the Russians had spent at least $200-300 on fuselage aerodynamics, then maybe this drone would have posed some threat, but it’s just a stupid waste of money,” believes Valeriy Romanenko.
As for the warhead, both the Italmash and the Lawnmower can carry very little – up to 5 kg of explosives. For comparison, a small Shahed-131 carries about 15 kg, and a large Shahed-136 carries 40-50 kg.
How will the Russians attack our energy sector?
According to the military, it is extremely difficult to predict the tactics of the invaders and when exactly the occupiers will start massive shelling. Last year, the Russians could simultaneously launch 70-100 missiles, or even more, at Ukraine from different directions and bases. Along with missiles, they also launched Shahed. We shot down most of the targets.
Valeriy Romanenko, an aviation expert, is confident that the attacks on Ukraine will be systematic, as the enemy’s stockpile of missiles is at the level of last year. The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense cites a figure of 870 missiles of various types.
– I do not think that the Russians will try to launch 100 or more missiles at the same time. For such a tactic to work, the missiles must enter Ukrainian airspace at the same time. And it will be very difficult for the Navy, Air Force and Land Missile Forces to play at the same time, and also to use the Shahed launchers,” emphasizes Valeriy Romanenko.
All these weapons have different flight speeds and will be launched from different locations. And the automated missile defense systems provided to us by our Western partners (SAMP/T, Patriot, IRIS-T, NASAMS, HAWK) are designed to defeat several dozen targets simultaneously.
It is clear that any missiles and attack drones will pose a direct threat to our population and infrastructure. Ukraine is in constant negotiations to strengthen all types of air and missile defense. We are improving mobile fire groups that are capable of countering drones. And we have probably protected our energy facilities better. Nevertheless, we have to be prepared for different scenarios, because the enemy’s goals have not changed at all.
