Classic black swan: how the war in Ukraine changed the course of elections in France

The war in Ukraine changes the schedule of the French elections.

Two weeks before the Russian attack on Ukraine, I was in Paris. Covers of French publications were full of photos of Putin and questions like – What does the Kremlin want. There were two months left before the elections, and foreign policy issues were not a priority for both voters and politicians. Of course, after each interview, I was asked to explain what was happening at the Ukrainian-Russian border. But even well-informed people were under Russian narratives. They asked me in horror: We saw that people were training to shoot. Is it obligatory for everyone? I explained that training was voluntary, and we were talking about hundreds of people who wanted it, not tens of thousands. The next question: Why are the United States providing weapons to you? My answer – these are Javelin grenade launchers, intended for defense, and our country is not going to attack Russia, which has deployed 100 thousand soldiers to the border. The French nodded, they said, it was logical. But they immediately asked: But do you understand that American weapons provoke Putin and lead to escalation?

The war begins. The absolute leader of the race, Emmanuel Macron, seeks to play the role of an intermediary, constantly, albeit to no avail, talking with Putin, and continues to form the image of a classic politician who knows how to negotiate. His opponent, far-right Marine Le Pen, hurriedly throws out booklets where she shakes hands with Putin. It seems that the fighting in Ukraine is too far away and does not affect the elections.

But war is a classic black swan that is not expected, but it changes everything.

Even before the war, gas and electricity bills began to rise in France. These are all the consequences of the gas blackmail of Europe from the Kremlin.

Gazprom deliberately reduced gas supplies to Europe in order to force the EU to allow the opening of Nord Stream 2. Gas prices on European stock exchanges rose to a record high. My interlocutors complained that after the COVID years incomes fell, and they also needed to pay utility bills, so they had to reduce their visits to restaurants. Impact on lifestyle. But the French for some reason did not call Moscow guilty of this.

Marine Le Pen and left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon sensed the situation, changed the campaign and criticized Macron for raising prices and promising to protect ordinary people.

The current French president has continued diplomatic efforts and even lobbied for an unpopular increase of the retirement age. Inflation began to rise in France.

As a result, the gap between Macron and Le Pen in the first round was minimal. That is an absolutely probable repetition of the past elections. Then Macron won confidently, in particular, because the French, who were categorically against the far-right Le Pen, voted for him. This year, many promise not to do so, because they consider Macron guilty of raising the cost of living.

The chances that Putin’s friend Le Pen will lead France and launch a pro-Russian policy are moving from science fiction to serious expert discussion. The struggle in both the first and second rounds of the French elections will be hot.